National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-11-22 20:27 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KGRR Products for 22 Nov 2019 View All AFD Products for 22 Nov 2019 View As Image Download As Text
373 FXUS63 KGRR 222027 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 327 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Discussion .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 - Skies will clear by evening / colder tonight - Pleasant Weather this weekend / storm system misses SW MI to south Saturday - System passes north of area Monday brings warmer air into area - A storm system with strong winds more than possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation type seems to favor mostly rain but that is not a sure thing at this point. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 The primary story is the storm event is the winter storm event we are expecting in the Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning time frame. Other than that, we have a 2 other systems that will move close to Southwest Michigan prior to the system Tuesday/Wednesday. The first system is a southern stream system system that will more than likely track south of our CWA Saturday afternoon and evening. This is one of those southwest United States closed upper low systems that gets sheared out. However the retreating northern stream system is to close to Michigan yet, so it is forced to stay south. It is not out of the question our SE CWA could see a little light rain Saturday evening but it should be dry enough to keep the precipitation south of this area. The next system is a northern stream system system tracks north of the Great Lakes Monday, due to much strong Pacific system that is trying to build an upper ridge over central United States early next week. That system will bring a little wind and warmer air with it but precipitation seems unlikely as the mid-level air is to dry. Northern areas may be close enough to the better lift to see some sprinkles or flurries from it. The main event for us is a Pacific system with a 150 to 180 knot jet core that will dig and fairly deep upper trough over the western United States early next week. However there are a few jet segments in this wave train, so while the lead wave comes out at us the main system energy is still west of us. Yes that does mean another winter storm event should be expected the following weekend when the main upper waves gets kicked east. Meanwhile through the lead wave comes at us in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Since this is not the main wave, just a shortwave being ejected out ahead of the main storm which will come later, this system should move quickly through the area and will not be able to pull down much cold air. Still it will tap Gulf moisture and there will be enough cold air north of the system track to bring an area of wet snow. So just how this storm comes out will decide where the rain/snow line is. All the models show this as a strong system, which means there will be strong winds behind it as it moves away Wednesday. As we get closer to the event we will add more detail to how this will play out. The good news is Thanksgiving looks like a good travel day at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 I expect skies to become clear or nearly so by late this afternoon. Currently MVFR cigs prevail over most of our TAF sites but visible satellite images show breaks in the clouds over southwest Michigan and skies clear over most of Wisconsin. Since the back edge of the polar jet will exit east of this area by mid afternoon, that will allow more subsidence and that in turn will clear the clouds. Also low to mid level warm advection will help that cause too. The surface high passing over southern Michigan tonight will allow for clear skies and light winds. The next system will pass off to the south of Michigan Saturday into Saturday night. The precipitation should stay south of our CWA but it would not be impossible for JXN to get some sprinkles from a mid deck cloud base in the evening. For the most part most of our TAF sites should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies (mid clouds) from the system passing to our south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 I plan on dropping the SCA with the next forecast issuance during the mid afternoon as none of our reporting sites have SCA criteria at this point. The next SCA event is expected on Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WDM DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...WDM MARINE...WDM