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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-11-22 17:37 UTC
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344 FXUS63 KGRR 221737 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1237 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Aviation/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 - Skies will clear by evening / colder tonight - Pleasant Weather this weekend / storm system misses SW MI to south Saturday - System passes north of area Monday brings warmer air into area - A storm system with strong winds more than possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation type seems to favor mostly rain but that is not a sure thing at this point. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 I increased the cloud cover to nearly overcast through late morning then allowed slow clearing this afternoon. It would seem the cloud cover will be slower to leave the area earlier through. Based on the mean RH in the 950 mb to 850 mb layer and looking at IR and VIS satellite loops and considering the cold advection at low levels does not really come to an end till early to mid afternoon, I would think the clouds will last into mid afternoon. Skies should for the most part clear by late afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Winds are slowly diminishing across the cwa early this morning. Skies remain cloudy and the light rain has just about ended. The cold front is moving across Lake Erie and high pressure will build into the state today. We may actually see a little sunshine late this afternoon that will continue during the daylight hours over the weekend. The next weather maker is low that will approach from the southwest Tuesday. ECMWF ensembles suggest this will be another wind maker and perhaps stronger than yesterday's storm. The euro is a bit farther west than the gfs and so places West MI in the warm sector and pushes the snow over northern Lower. The gfs is farther south and would dump some snow over the cwa. The Canadian model leans toward the euro and so will we. Thus, we're looking at mainly rain Tuesday. However over the northern cwa some wet snow could mix in. The pcpn should diminish by Wednesday with high pressure building into the Great Lakes on Thanksgiving. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 I expect skies to become clear or nearly so by late this afternoon. Currently MVFR cigs prevail over most of our TAF sites but visible satellite images show breaks in the clouds over southwest Michigan and skies clear over most of Wisconsin. Since the back edge of the polar jet will exit east of this area by mid afternoon, that will allow more subsidence and that in turn will clear the clouds. Also low to mid level warm advection will help that cause too. The surface high passing over southern Michigan tonight will allow for clear skies and light winds. The next system will pass off to the south of Michigan Saturday into Saturday night. The precipitation should stay south of our CWA but it would not be impossible for JXN to get some sprinkles from a mid deck cloud base in the evening. For the most part most of our TAF sites should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies (mid clouds) from the system passing to our south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 I plan on dropping the SCA with the next forecast issuance during the mid afternoon as none of our reporting sites have SCA criteria at this point. The next SCA event is expected on Monday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...WDM DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...WDM MARINE...WDM