915 
FXUS62 KMLB 302014
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
414 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers will continue to
develop, mainly across the interior, as the east coast sea breeze
continues inland. An isolated storm or two is still possible,
especially near to northwest of I-4 through sunset. Low level flow
begins to veer to the south-southeast late tonight, with lingering
slight chance of onshore moving showers limited to coastal areas 
from the Cape southward. With weakening winds overnight could see 
areas of stratus/patchy fog develop, mainly over the interior late
tonight toward daybreak Thursday. However, latest hi-res guidance
not showing much fog development for tonight. 

Thursday...High pressure ridge axis moves southward over central
Florida as a cold front moves through the Southeast U.S. and
toward north Florida late in the day. Low level flow will veer to
the S/SW, which will keep temperatures well above normal ahead of
the front, likely reaching record highs across much of the area in
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Rain chances remain low with
only a slight chance for showers and afternoon storms.

Thursday night-Friday...Cold front will be working through the area 
overnight Thursday into Friday morning with winds veering 
northwesterly to northerly. Enough convergence along and ahead of 
the front is enough to keep a chance of showers into the early 
overnight hours with 30% along the coast and 20% inland. Overnight 
lows look to be a few degrees cooler especially NW of I-4 where some 
could see lows in the mid-upper 60s, but everyone else still in the 
low 70s.

Frontal boundary is forecast to be south of Melbourne by Friday 
morning and may push a little farther south through the day before 
stalling out.  Some drier will move in behind the front, and 
forecast soundings are showing a frontal front inversion as well. 
This will keep rain out of the forecast north of a Kissimmee to 
Titusville line.  Rain chances increase farther south, closer to and 
out ahead of the front with the highest chances from Vero Beach 
southward.  With sufficient moisture and daytime heating could also 
see some storms during the afternoon across the Treasure Coast and 
Okeechobee as well. 

Substantial cloud cover behind the front may keep temperatures 
cooler with mid to upper 70s north of Orlando, which would be the 
first below normal temperatures in quite some time.  Lower dewpoints 
should make it feel nice out as well.  To the south, although still 
an improvement, high temperatures still likely to be in the low to 
mid 80s. 

Saturday-Wednesday (previous)...A slow warming trend will commence 
this weekend lasting through next week as high pressure builds in 
behind the frontal passage, generally centered over Appalachia 
through Sunday. This will keep central FL in generally NE flow, with 
a slight tightening of the pressure gradient increasing winds near 
10 mph. Saturday and Sunday rain chances near 40% with frontal 
remnants still over the area. By early next week, the high shifts 
over the Atlantic, veering winds onshore and thus increasing 
moisture. PoPs persist in the 30-40% with a slight chance of 
afternoon thunder. Highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s, but 
will quickly rebound to the mid 80s through mid week, with lows in 
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated to scattered showers over the interior, and 
possibly a storm or two well inland will have the potential to 
produce brief IFR/MVFR conditions through sunset. Otherwise VFR 
conditions expected into the evening. Stratus and patchy fog could 
form late tonight toward daybreak Thursday as MOS guidance is 
hinting at, but latest hi-res model guidance doesn't currently show 
much in the way of fog formation across the area. Will limit tempo 
groups for cig/vis reductions for inland TAF sites between 10-13Z.


&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Thursday...East to southeast winds become more southerly 
into tomorrow as ridge axis slides southward over the waters. Wind 
speeds remain below 15 knots with seas building to 4 to 5 feet. 

Thursday night-Sunday...Winds will veer northwesterly and then 
northerly behind a cold front moving through the waters overnight 
Thursday. A northerly wind surge around 20 kt behind the front will 
further deteriorate boating conditions across the Volusia waters 
late Thursday night with poor to hazardous conditions southward 
across the remainder of the coastal waters into Friday. Seas quickly 
build from 5-6 ft to 6-8 ft by Friday morning into the afternoon. A 
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the 
waters with at least cautionary statements continuing over the 
weekend for lingering seas of 5-6 ft.  

Monday...Poor conditions continue into early next week.  Easterly 
winds expected to diminish to around 10-15 kt, but seas still remain 
5-6 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All climate sites are expected to either break or tie their record
warm minimum temperatures for today, and Sanford has already broke
their record high this afternoon. As much warmer than normal 
conditions continue into tomorrow, additional record highs and 
warm minimum temperatures are expected to be tied or broken. 

            OCT-30            OCT-31
LOC      HI-MAX  HI-MIN    HI-MAX  HI-MIN
DAB     90 1980 74 2009   89 1994 75 2007
MCO     94 1934 72 1980   90 1922 74 1949
SFB     89 1949 73 2002   90 1980 72 2007
MLB     93 1980 77 1978   89 1994 76 2003
VRB     91 2002 76 1949   93 1980 75 2007
FPR     92 1980 78 1949   90 1992 77 1941

With above normal temperatures persisting through the end of month, 
Daytona Beach, Orlando and Vero Beach will have monthly average 
temperatures that will rank this October as the warmest on record 
for these sites. Melbourne could still climb up in their rankings, 
with their average temperature potentially tying October 2007
(80.7 degrees) as their record warmest October, or even exceeding
this value slightly. However Sanford and Fort Pierce will likely 
remain 2nd and 3rd warmest respectively. 

Here are the preliminary climate statistics for October 2019 across 
the area (through October 29th):

October 2019 Average Temperature (Through the 29th): 

Site:            Avg. Temp:      Ranking (Top 10): 
Daytona Beach    79.2 (+4.9)     Warmest (Previous 78.0/2007) 
Sanford          78.7 (+3.0)     2nd Warmest 
Orlando          81.0 (+5.2)     Warmest (Previous 80.2/1919) 
Melbourne        80.6 (+4.3)     2nd Warmest 
Vero Beach       80.9 (+4.1)     Warmest (Previous 80.2/2007) 
Ft. Pierce       79.9 (+3.1)     3rd Warmest (Ties 2007)

October 2019 Total Rainfall (Through the 29th):

Site:            Rainfall:       Ranking (Top 10): 
Daytona Beach   13.82" (+9.80")  2nd Wettest 
Sanford          6.35" (+2.83")  - 
Orlando          6.07" (+2.90")  - 
Melbourne        6.31" (+1.47")  - 
Vero Beach       6.19" (+1.50")  - 
Ft. Pierce       4.21" (-0.67")  -

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  69  75 /  10  20  30  10 
MCO  74  91  70  80 /  10  20  20  10 
MLB  76  89  73  83 /  20  20  30  30 
VRB  74  88  72  84 /  20  20  30  50 
LEE  74  90  68  77 /  20  20  20  10 
SFB  73  90  69  77 /  10  20  20  10 
ORL  74  90  72  78 /  10  20  20  10 
FPR  73  87  71  84 /  20  20  30  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATE...Weitlich 
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....Combs