473 
FXUS63 KOAX 112041
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

The massive, slow-moving storm system over the northern Plains
continues to dominate the weather locally with strong westerly
flow and cold advection. This afternoon, the steep low level lapse
rates and a shallow moist layer in the snow growth zone at 5000 
feet have allowed for some flurry development, with many areas
seeing a few flakes but nothing in the way of actual accumulation.
Recent satellite patterns now clearly indicate an influx of drier
air from the west and these low clouds are quickly dissipating in
central Nebraska...with a high likelihood that they will dissipate
in the next few hours over eastern NE and western IA as well. 

Overnight tonight the main story is freezing temperatures as the
entire area is likely to fall into the 28-33 degree range. While
skies will be clearing, the wind is likely to continue low level
mixing through the night which will help keep air temperatures a
bit warmer. In any valleys where the winds are lighter or even
calm for an hour or two, can expect air temps to get quite a bit
cooler, but believe this will be the exception and a vast majority
of the area will maintain wind, boundary layer mixing, and thus 
have low temperatures hold above 28. Saturday will be windy from 
the west once again but warmer with southern parts of the area 
well into the 50s...and holding in the 40s in northern NE. Expect 
ample sunshine. Then tomorrow night, winds will relax and clear 
skies will allow temperatures to fall below freezing once again. 
Uncertain at this point if freeze/frost products will be needed as
a killing frost tonight would preclude the need for additional 
watch/warning products through the rest of the fall season.

Sunday into Monday will be pleasant with highs in the 50s on
Sunday and the 60s on Monday while lows continue to range from the
upper 20s to lower 30s (coldest north). A weak fast-moving storm
system will bring a small chance for rain to the area late Monday,
but most of the area is likely to be dry with most precip being
east of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

The long term period is pretty benign, and generally pleasant and
fall-like. A cold front comes through late Monday which will cool
temperatures down a bit for Tuesday into Wednesday, but by the end
of the week, a warming trend is expected with highs in the 60s or
even lower 70s. Will be watching another fast-moving storm system
by Friday which could eventually bring a chance for precip, but
not a lot of confidence in the timing or track of this system at
this time. Beyond day 7, there area hints in the ensembles at a
more active weather pattern with mean southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

VFR conditions likely through the TAF period with scattered to
broken ceilings in the 3500-5000 ft range through roughly 23Z at
all sites today. Expect clearing skies after 23Z with less
frequent gusts until around 15Z when winds increase again. OFK
will be close to experiencing LLWS overnight with 2000 foot AGL 
winds from the west at 30-35 kts, but have not included it in the
TAF at this time.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for 
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch