254 
FXUS63 KEAX 261729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2019

Outside of the MCS over southern Missouri, our area is relatively 
impact free as upper level ridging and surface high pressure build 
into the region. This trend will make for a beautiful fall day with 
mostly sunny skies and temperatures only getting into the mid to 
upper 70s with dewpoints in the 50s! 

This trend unfortunately will be short-lived as a shortwave trough 
moves through the northern plains with low levels shifting to a 
southerly flow on Friday. This shortwave will help develop a low 
pressure region from KS up into MN Friday morning. Warm moist low 
level flow will cause some stratus and light drizzle possible 
overnight into the morning, but also increase dewpoints into the 70s 
across the region. If cloud coverage does shift northward, which 
guidance indicates, then there will be enough heating to get our 
temps into the mid 80s with a swath of higher MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg 
ahead of the developing cold front. The timing of this front, and 
associated mid level accent to break the cap, will be key to severe 
weather coverage and intensity. Most guidance has this boundary 
enter the area late in the afternoon with convective initiation 
occurring just before sunset. If this timing holds true, then the 
possibility of discrete supercells ahead and along the boundary is 
possible through sunset. The large CAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates 
(8C/km), and effective bulk shear near 40ks will lead to possible 
large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. The hodographs 
are relatively straight, but do lean towards right moving supercells 
in the warm sector. The storm motion and shear vectors will be 
parallel to the boundary which will be the limiting factor for 
widespread severe weather as it will allow for rapid cold pool 
development. This will change the storm mode to more of a linear 
mode. The hodographs also indicates that training storms along the 
boundary with PWAT values near 2" so flash flooding will come into 
play after sunset as the boundary stalls over our area. This 
boundary does appear to stall over our area through Saturday before 
finally moving north as a warm front as the next low pressure system 
develops along the front range Sunday. The QPF focus does shift 
around during this timeframe so this could be more of a widespread 
higher QPF event than all of it localized. Overall we are looking 
for widespread 2-3" with higher totals over north central Missouri 
close to 4". This could aggravate already high rivers in central 
Missouri and will need to be watched. 

Monday through Tuesday we will stay in the warm sector of a larger 
frontal system over the plains allowing above average temperatures 
and humidity to start the week. This will change Tuesday night into 
Wednesday as the cold front from the low pressure system becomes 
stationary over our area between a deep low pressure system over the 
Rockies and strong high pressure over the SE US. This pattern could 
be impactful as plenty of moisture will be available from the Gulf 
of Mexico and the Pacific, all merging over this boundary. This 
pattern sets up a potential major hydro event if it all plays out as 
guidance indicates now and will need to be watched as we get closer 
to the work week for any trends or changes with this system. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2019

VFR conditions should persist through the afternoon and evening
hours. MVFR ceilings will develop through midnight, at all sites,
and remain in place through the end of the period. Southeasterly
winds will shift more south and southeast through the morning,
increasing ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Kurtz