914 
FXUS63 KTOP 041757
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1257 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

The cold front that moved into northeast KS yesterday continued to 
progress southward through east-central KS overnight. As of 08Z, 
the front is draped across southern KS and a large surface ridge 
is located over the Dakotas and Nebraska. Aloft, an expansive mid-
level ridge stretches from the Four Corners region eastward over 
much of KS, OK and northern TX, with troughing over the Great 
Lakes.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Small, isolated showers developed overnight in north-central KS near 
a zone of what appeared to be slight isentropic ascent on the 310K 
surface. Have kept a mention of slight chance POPs toward sunrise, 
but coverage will remain extremely limited and showers will likely 
dissipate quickly after developing. 

Dewpoints have been falling behind yesterday's front, and drier air 
will continue to filter in early today as surface pressure 
increases. Temperatures should also be noticeably cooler than 
yesterday with highs topping out in the low 80s for much of the
forecast area, but a touch warmer for locations in central KS.

The center of the surface ridge will be northeast of the area by 
tonight, and surface winds will begin to veer to more of a southerly 
direction. That will set the stage for a quick warm up tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

The surface boundary located south of the area will begin to lift
back northward as a warm front tomorrow as an area of low 
pressure advances across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. Return 
flow will allow for the advection of warmer air and higher 
dewpoints into the area. The current forecast has temps reaching 
the upper 80s with dewpoints increasing to around 70 degrees. The 
resulting heat index will be in the upper 90s tomorrow afternoon. 
The aforementioned surface low will continue to track east with a 
trailing cold front expected to move into the CWA tomorrow night. 
FROPA will be dry tomorrow night/early Friday due to weak forcing 
and lack of moisture through the column. 

More of an active mid-level pattern will allow for the ridge to 
break down this weekend. Most long-range models show a mid-level 
storm system moving across the northwestern tier of the CONUS and 
into the Midwest on Saturday. As of right now, most of Saturday 
looks dry, but precip chances will start to increase later into 
the weekend and early next week as an active mid-level pattern 
persists. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at the 
TAF sites. A few high clouds will move across the area with winds 
slowly veering from the east toward the south by tomorrow morning,
increasing slightly as high sfc pressure moves east and a stronger
pressure gradient moves in.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Teefey
SHORT TERM...Teefey
LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...Laflin/Picha