073 
FXUS63 KIND 150809
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
409 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The heat wave will continue today, but the outer bands of Barry
will start reaching portions of central Indiana. So, expect 
slightly higher chances for showers and thunderstorms today and 
tonight. There will kind of be a break from the high temperatures 
tomorrow and Wednesday as the bulk of the heavy rainfall from 
Barry moves through central Indiana, but that break will still 
mean high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Further out, even 
higher, dangerous temperatures will return for the extended period
with heat index values in the triple digits.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Current radar mosaic shows increasing precipitation bands moving
into western Tennessee and Kentucky as the remnants of Barry push
farther inland. Meanwhile, the high pressure that has been
dominating the central Indiana forecast the last several days has
shifted farther northeast. As a result, will trend toward increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms from southwest to northeast
across central Indiana after sunrise as isentropic lift
strengthens. Additional diurnal heating this afternoon will
contribute to pulse storms as temperatures top off in the upper
80s/low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The main focus of the short term period will be on heavy rainfall
with the remnants of Barry on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Will continue with the same trend as the near term period of 
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances from southwest to 
northeast across central Indiana for Tuesday and Wednesday, too. 

Latest blended initialization is leaning toward chance pops
tonight, and confidence is not high enough to deviate from that.
But, would not completely rule out a bit of a lull in activity
between the diurnal heating of Monday afternoon and better forcing
from Barry around sunrise Tuesday morning. 

The effects of Barry will really start impacting central Indiana
after Tue 12Z with the heaviest rainfall moving through during the
Tue 18Z - Thu 00Z time frame. PWAT values remain in the 2.1 to 2.3
inch range. The bulk of the precipitation will end after Thu 00Z
with just a few residual showers and thunderstorms possible
through Wednesday night.

The heat will break a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday, but highs will
still remain in the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, overnight lows
will generally be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... 
Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

With the departure of precip shield mid-week heading into
Thursday, expect a return to a dome of high pressure over the
region. Ensembles remain in good agreement in the longwave
pattern, featuring ridging over the Ohio Valley. This will
continue to allow temperatures and humidity to remain warm and
relatively dry. The only precipitation that current guidance
indicates to occur would be scattered convective kind. 

The main focus of concern for late this week into the weekend will
revolve around the building heat and humidity for the area this
weekend into early next week. With recent rainfall earlier in the
week, the combination of warm temps will likely translate into
heat indices over 100 degrees Thur and Fri for much of Central
Indiana. 

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1134 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

VFR through the period.

Increasing heat and humidity and the approach of the remnants of
Barry will increase shower and storm chances, especially just
beyond this TAF period. Cannot rule out isolated to widely
scattered convection tomorrow, but it is too uncertain for an
explicit mention at this time.

Winds throughout the period will be 10KT or less, and no
obstructions to visibility are expected.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Beach
AVIATION...Nield