532 
FXUS64 KMOB 081200 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 09.12z. Could see 
brief periods of MVFR cigs and visibilities mainly in and around 
scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and early
this evening. Winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 knots early 
today shifting southwest to west at 10 to 15 knots with slightly 
higher gusts this afternoon and early this evening becoming 
northwest at 5 knots or less late this evening and overnight. 
32/ee 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...A weak mid to upper trof 
generally stretching from the Appalachians to the coastal waters 
of NWFL and AL will shift southeast and break off as a closed low 
over the eastern FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf waters by 12z Tue,
moving further south then tracking west later in the week. Near 
the sfc a weak trof extending from the mid Atlantic States to the 
Eastern FL Panhandle early this morning will also break off to the
south as a broad area of low pressure stretching from the FL Big 
Bend to the north central Gulf states by 12z Tue. With this 
pattern better moisture in the lower levels will continue to 
advect north and west across the forecast area through tonight 
leading to slightly higher heat index values late this morning and
this afternoon. At this time heat indices look to remain just 
below the 108 F criteria but will have to be monitored closely 
today especially along the immediate coast. With this pattern the 
best chance for measurable rain continues to be over eastern and 
coastal sections of the forecast area due to the position of the 
upper system tracking to the southeast and the weak surface trof 
dropping southward towards the coast. Model soundings continue to 
show marginal surface based instability with higher than normal 
lapse rates in the lower levels combined with good forcing aloft 
in the mid levels suggesting a few strong thunderstorms will still
be possible this afternoon and evening with gusty straightline 
winds and frequent lightning being the main threats. With the 
better moisture in the lower levels, pwats around 2 inches, 
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with some of the 
heavier showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon and early 
this evening. 

Temperatures will continue to be above average through tonight with 
highs today ranging from the middle to upper 90s for most inland 
areas and the lower to middle 90s along the immediate coast. Lows 
tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s for most inland areas 
and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast. 32/ee   

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...The shortwave
trough currently lying east to west over central Alabama is 
projected to move southward over the northern Gulf and develop 
into a closed low. A trough of surface low pressure will linger 
linger over the region Tuesday serving as a focus for afternoon 
convection. Spectral models appear to be coming to a general 
consensus in deepening an area of low pressure over the northern 
Gulf Tuesday night and slowly tracking it westward. Anticipate 
that shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Wednesday 
especially closer to the coast and linger into the evening hours. 
Increased cloud cover and convection over the region may provide 
for some relief from the afternoon heat at least over our more 
coastal counties. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to generally
range from the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 102 to 108 
with locally higher values possible. Wednesday's high temperatures
were trended downward a couple of degrees and forecast to climb 
generally into the low to mid 90s Wednesday. /08

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Models begin to diverge on
the projected evolution of the modeled tropical low over the
northern Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF operational models are now in 
reasonable agreement with tracking it westward across the northern
Gulf toward the Texas coast. The GFS ensemble members also favor 
a westward track. Although there remains some variance among the
GFS ensemble members as several turn it northward. The ECMWF 
ensemble members also tend to favor a westward track but has more 
spread among its members on how far west. The GEM starts out west 
but then takes a northeastward track. The UKMET also favors an 
initial westward track but then transitions to a northeastward 
track. There still remains a great deal of uncertainty as to the 
track and eventual intensity of this projected feature. However, 
confidence is increasing that a tropical system will develop over 
the northern Gulf. NHC's 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 AM 
EDT is projecting a 70 percent probability of development.

For now, have trended this forecast toward the operational GFS 
and ECMWF solution of tracking the system westward over the
northern Gulf waters. With this track, the biggest potential impacts
would increased showers and thunderstorms especially near the 
coast through Saturday. Increasing onshore flow and swell could
lead to a high risk of rip currents by Thursday along Gulf 
beaches. Dangerous marine conditions should also be anticipated. 
As previously discussed, there still remains a great deal of 
uncertainty as to how this system will evolve. The expected 
impacts will also evolve as certainty increases regarding the 
strength and movement of this area of low pressure. /08

MARINE...A persistent flow mostly from the west northwest will 
continue over the marine area through mid week as a broad surface 
ridge of high pressure continues along the Texas coast and over the 
northwest Gulf. A moderate to strong easterly flow will be likely 
later in the week as an area of low pressure develops over the 
northeast Gulf and moves west. Mariners should keep up with the 
latest updates on this developing system. Winds and seas will be 
stronger near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms 
throughout the week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob