739 
FXUS62 KFFC 300054 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
854 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.UPDATE...
Near term grids updated based on decreasing radar reflectivity
trends. Also did some enhancement of grids during July 4th 
holiday to support DSS. Heat index forecasts even this far out 
will likely be critical to decisions made on road races and other
activities. Heat index values Monday thru Friday around ATL metro
likely to be around 100 with values around 105+ possible over 
middle GA. Will need to monitor these forecasts carefully for
possible advisories.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Moist southerly flow will continue in the short term with
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The overall weather
pattern is fairly weak which is typical for this time of year. This
pattern will keep temps near climatological averages with highs 
in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 
70s. PWATs will also continue to increase from about 1.6 inches 
this afternoon to 2.0 inches especially across central GA through 
Sunday. Convection will be diurnally driven in nature, with the 
highest chances focused across central Georgia where the deepest 
moisture is expected. All in all, did not make many changes to the
current forecast but did increase to the PoPs this afternoon and
Sunday afternoon. Still only expecting a few isolated severe
storms each day as instability indices are weak to marginal at
best. 

01

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only minor adjustments to the long term. Still looks like minimal 
pops Monday and Tuesday as the upper ridge strengthens across the 
area. The ridge flattens somewhat for the remainder of the period 
with increasing moisture. So general chance pops look okay for much 
of the area through the period.

41

Previous LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Upper ridging will dominate the first part of the work week and as
the main moisture axis sags farther south, expecting only slight
chance pops for isolated showers and storms on the outskirts of
the CWA for Monday and Tuesday. The ridge looks to
dampen/retrograde westward Wednesday through Friday, which will
allow greater moisture return and some exposure to possible 
enhanced forcing with any impulses tracking along still fairly 
weak longwave energy from the west. Have general chance pops for
scattered convection daily through the second half of the week.
Unfortunately, it looks like we cannot guarantee a dry
Independence day with 30-40 percent chance of showers and storms. 

Temps will be above climo norms thru period with most areas in the
mid to upper 90s, and with some increased humidity the resultant
heat indices could be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria in
portions of the area (especially central Georgia) for Tuesday
through Friday. Please monitor future updates if this is 
warranted.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru the forecast with only some MVFR 
cigs possible in SHRA/TSRA. SHRA/TSRA dissipating this evening but
should develop again after 18Z Sunday, have included TEMPO for 
TSRA at all forecast points. Sfc winds will remain or become light
W overnight and increase to 4 to 8kts after 15Z Sunday.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence in all elements

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  93  71  96 /  10  20  20  10 
Atlanta         71  89  72  94 /  20  30  30  10 
Blairsville     64  85  65  88 /  10  30  20  20 
Cartersville    69  91  70  94 /  20  30  20  10 
Columbus        72  91  74  96 /  40  40  30  20 
Gainesville     70  90  71  93 /  10  20  20  10 
Macon           70  92  73  97 /  40  40  30  10 
Rome            69  91  70  94 /  20  30  20  10 
Peachtree City  69  90  71  94 /  30  40  30  20 
Vidalia         71  92  74  96 /  40  40  30  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...SNELSON