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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2019-06-20 05:33 UTC
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529 FXUS64 KLUB 200533 AAC AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours; the only caveat to that is there is a potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings at KLBB and KPVW towards sunrise. Confidence is too low to include at this time as models have no consistency in onset timing or how low ceilings will become. Only other issue is a few models are also developing isolated thunderstorms that could impact all three TAF sites. This too remains problematic as there is a wide range of times and locations in the computer models so will also leave out until confidence increases in timing and location. Jordan && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ DISCUSSION... A quiet night is likely ahead for the South Plains area. A weak surface low has developed in the vicinity of Childress resulting in west to northwest winds across the forecast area. These west winds have not been the typical drying west wind, but they extend back west of the New Mexico mountains as well keeping the high terrain quiet today. Meanwhile low level convergence as shifted east of the region and east of the surface low. Looking ahead, no significant changes have been made to the forecast today. A low-amplitude upper ridge will move across the area tomorrow, the nearly-zonal mid and upper flow aiding the dryline shifting eastward toward the Caprock escarpment. Although there should be some convergence along the dryline warming mid level temperatures point to the cap holding, a verdict the model consensus continues to agree with. The upper flow backs to southwest on Friday ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Great Basin which will give the dryline another push, but likely not as far to the east. Meanwhile some mid level cooling suggests convective initiation will be a possibility and will maintain slight chance mention. The eastward progression of the upper trough and another dryline push into increasing low level moisture might be able to produce another round of storms across the east Saturday, but after that there is not strong trends toward precipitation or abnormal temperatures. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14/14/14