National Weather Service Raw Text Product

813 
FXUS64 KLCH 200457
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are beginning to develop along the coast and will
continue to push inland over the next few hours. The main question
during the overnight hours whether/how far south and east
thunderstorms will be able to progress. KAEX is the most likely 
to see thunderstorms during the overnight hours. However, there
appears to be enough potential for thunderstorms to move southward
that VCTS were included at all TAF sites during the most likely
time frames. Any thunder/MVFR ceilings are expected to clear out 
of the area during the 10Z-14Z time range and will give way to VFR
conditions for the rest of the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Currently watching two areas of convection on regional 88Ds. First
area is noted passing to our north...high res guidance has had a 
good handle on this activity and continues to prog it staying to
our north. Second area upstream moving out of cntl TX and into
e-cntl/sern TX at the moment...this activity will bear watching as
current trajectories would carry into our nwrn zones during the 
overnight hours, although high res guidance is not in agreement on
an eventual solution. KLCH 00z sounding indicated a little 
capping around 850 millibars which if translated forward into the 
overnight hours could help spell an end to the action as it 
approaches. Inherited grids/zones showed chance neighborhood POPs 
for the nwrn zones overnight which still looks good. Elsewhere, 
inherited grids/zones look fine...long story short, no evening 
update is planned at this time.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft is centered over the west gulf
this afternoon with ridging stretched into the northwest gulf
coast. An upper disturbance is pushing into the Texas Panhandle
and this will spark storms later this afternoon and evening across
North Texas.

At the surface the Bermuda High will remain centered in the 
Central Atlantic and into the north gulf coast. This feature will 
remain in place through the period which will keep a warm and
moist south flow in place.

Tonight storms are expected to push across Northeast Texas and
into Louisiana, however the upper ridge is expected to remain in
place as well. This will prompt storms to weaken as they move 
into the local area, however enough instability and lift will be 
in place that some storms may be still be strong through the lakes
and CenLA. The line of showers and storms is expected to decay 
through early Thursday much like this morning with the showers and
storms along the old outflow boundary.

The upper ridge is expected to become more established by Friday
and into Saturday before breaking down Sunday. Low to nonexistent
rain chances are expected Friday and Saturday. Heat index values 
will also run from 102 to 107 Thursday through Saturday with a few
spotty areas maybe reaching up to 108 for an hour or two well 
inland. 

MARINE...A light to moderate onshore flow is expected through
early Friday, however the pressure gradient is expected to tighten
between the Atlantic ridge and a developing area of low pressure
over the plains this weekend. This is expected to cause winds to
increase into the 15 to 20 kt range Saturday and perhaps briefly
hit SCA criteria on the western zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  77  94 /  30  20   0  10 
LCH  78  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  10 
LFT  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  10  10 
BPT  78  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Thursday afternoon for 
     GMZ470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...26