875 
FXUS61 KBGM 190205
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1005 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across
the area on Wednesday. Another stronger low will bring more 
showers and storms Thursday and Thursday night. A period of dry
weather settles in Friday into early Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
10 pm update...Forecast soundings showing some weak elevated
instability through midnight now, with about 100 J/kg of CAPE.
Dry air finally comes in around midnight or just after and
showers should diminish. Kept scattered showers in the forecast
for our western counties for a few more hours and then just
isolated/slight chance for showers thereafter.  

7 pm update...
Made only minor changes to PoP based on latest Radar, with
showers more scattered across Steuben County and very limited
shower activity elsewhere. After sunset, should see showers
diminish rather quickly, but with the very wet conditions, fog
could become rather thick in some locations overnight.  


340 pm update... 
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the potential for 
scattered showers and a few weak storms this afternoon and early 
evening...the development of low clouds and fog tonight...and more 
scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. 

Weak upper wave and associated surface front will continue to track 
to the east late this afternoon with a few lingering rain showers 
passing through the Poconos and far srn Catskills. A post-frontal 
air mass is currently moving into central NY with a few very weak 
showers and storms popping up...which should continue through 
sunset. The air mass will stabilize tonight and allow for the 
development of low clouds and fog. Atmosphere will remain unsettled 
tonight...and cannot rule out a stray light rain shower...so have 
kept with a slight chance of rain through tonight.

The potential for rain increases during the late morning on 
Wednesday as the air mass destabilizes. ML CAPE values around 1000 
J/kg and weak to moderate deep layer shear will promote convective 
initiation, but the combination of weak upper level 
forcing...shallow low level lapse rates and the presence of an ill-
defined surface boundary should keep the storms in check for the 
most part. The threat for showers and storms peaks during the 
afternoon and early evening, and then starts to diminish after 
sunset and through the overnight hours. The main concern with any 
storms that do form will likely be hail and strong wind gusts. The 
threat for heavy rain and flash flooding is on the lower end of the 
scale given the presence of a relatively deep layer of dry air 
aloft. Isolated rainfall amounts around a half inch are not out of 
the question, but widespread amounts will likely be a quarter inch 
or less.

Temperatures tonight will remain fairly mild with lows dropping into 
the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Wednesday, temperatures will warm 
into the lower to mid 70s in the Catskills and Poconos...and into 
the mid 70s to lower 80s along and west of I-81. Another mild night 
Wednesday night with lows bottoming out in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 pm update...

Thursday into Thursday night will be the main issue for the 
week. An upper level trough will move through with a surface low
and cold front tracking through PA. Models very similar the 
last few days on the scenario. Heavy rain will be ahead of with 
the surface low Thursday into Thursday evening. Pwats will be 
1.5" to almost 2". The individual cells will be moving but the 
entire duration of the rain will be long. Models are showing
stripes of heavy rain just about anywhere in the CWA. Widespread
average amounts of 1 inch is likely. Thunderstorms with heavy
rain could up the amounts to a few inches. Too far out to say
where the heaviest rain will be. The most prone area will be
where the flash flooding was today in NEPA. 

The severe threat will be best in NEPA to the Catskills in the
afternoon to early evening. SPC has the area in a marginal 
risk. With a saturated sounding, CAPE is tall and skinny and 
mostly around 500. Bulk deep shear is around 35 kts. 
Temperatures rise only a little into the low and mid 70s 
Thursday. Clouds and rain will hinder the rise. 

Rain will push east late Thursday night. Lows from the mid 50s
north to around 60 south. 

Friday a few lingering showers will be around in the morning and
quickly push east. The afternoon will be mostly dry with skies
becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 pm update...

Finally a dry period shows itself with a narrow north to south
area of surface heights. Upper level heights are building but
the ridge doesn't get here until Sunday. Friday afternoon to
Sunday should be mainly dry but showers try to push in from the
west Sunday. It finally gets in the vicinity Sunday night
continuing into Tuesday. Models not agreeing on the timing or
the amounts. 

Temperatures on the cool side of normal with highs getting into
the upper 70s starting Sunday. Lows start around 50 then rise to
around 60 with the showers Monday night.  

previous discussion...
Looking at next week, more in the way of summerlike weather may
end being in the cards as a predominately +PNA becomes 
negative. As a result, the mean trough with cooler air masses 
likely shifts into the west and ridging develops over the 
eastern United States. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC 
gives higher chances for above normal temperatures and near 
normal precipitation. This could be a significant reversal from 
the cool wet pattern of the last 6 weeks or so.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites until at least 04Z,
with KSYR likely remaining VFR throughout the entire TAF period.
KRME will likely have a brief period of MVFR ceilings between
10Z and 13Z. Low clouds and fog are expected to develop at 
KITH, KELM, KBGM, and KAVP, bringing associated restrictions
late tonight/early Wednesday morning. This will especially be 
the case at KELM and KBGM, where visibilities will likely drop 
to 3SM or less beginning between 04Z and 06Z, with associated 
ALT MIN ceilings. Any remaining fog will likely dissipate by the
mid-late morning hours. 

Instability ramps back up late Wednesday morning into the 
afternoon with more scattered showers and isolated storms 
possible. That being said, confidence is currently not high
enough to include in this set of TAFs.

Weak flow will allow light and variable winds at all sites 
throughout the TAF period.

Outlook... 

Wednesday night through Thursday...Periods of occasional 
lowered flight categories likely, with the possibility of 
SHRA/TSRA. The greatest coverage will likely occur Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...VFR conditions likely as high pressure
builds in.

Sunday...Conditions will likely remain VFR most of the day, with
a few restrictions developing later in the day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MWG/TAC
AVIATION...BJG/BJT