087 
FXUS64 KSJT 030329 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1029 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.UPDATE...

Canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Crockett and Sutton 
counties as the threat for severe thunderstorms across the area 
has diminished. Models show the best chance for additional showers
and thunderstorms across southern sections through daybreak. 
Will keep chance POPs going for far southern sections and 20 POPs
elsewhere for the rest of the overnight period. Also tweaked temps
and dewpoints, otherwise no other changes made at this time.          

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Skies have temporarily cleared across most terminals, except 
KJCT. MVFR stratus otherwise will return late evening, falling to 
IFR later tonight into early Friday morning. Patchy light fog also
likely, but with stratus and a return to southernly winds, it 
should not become dense. KSOA may be affected by scattered 
thunderstorms overnight, with VCTS over all terminals late morning
into the afternoon, with approach of an upper shortwave.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday) 

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the southern half of
the forecast area. The main concern in the next few hours will be
localized flooding and flash flooding. There is one severe storm
in southern Sutton County, but that storm is weakening at the
moment, will likely continue that trend over the next hour or so.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch may need to be cancelled early if
the downward trend in thunderstorm intensity continues. 

Although the atmosphere has been worked over today, with plenty 
of moisture still in place, combined with leftover surface 
boundaries from today's convection and an upper level disturbance 
moving through tonight into Friday morning, there will be a 
chance for new activity to develop later tonight into Friday. The
threat for severe weather in the form of hail and/or damaging 
winds will trend downward for Friday. However, most areas have 
seen rainfall over the past 24 to 48 hours, and if additional 
heavy rain takes place, localized flooding and/or flash flooding 
will be a concern for Friday. 

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night into the weekend, the forecast is expected to dry out
some as weak upper level ridging moves into the area. 

Sunday night into Monday, an upper level low will move into the
southern half of California, bringing southwest flow back over our
area. Troughing will remain persistent over the western half of
the U. S. through the middle of next week. This will continue the
southwest flow over our area, and passing shortwave troughs. With
that in mind, we could see continued active weather, with pleny of
low level moisture to work with, and another potential front
moving into the region mid-week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 60  74  57  74 /  20  80  40   5 
San Angelo 	 60  78  57  78 /  20  80  50  10 
Junction 	 61  78  58  79 /  50  80  50  10 
Brownwood 	 60  73  57  75 /  30  80  50  10 
Sweetwater 	 59  75  57  74 /  20  70  30  10 
Ozona      	 61  77  56  78 /  40  70  40  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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