759 
FXUS62 KMLB 101447
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Morning WX analysis showing a weak sfc low off the Carolina Coast 
with an attending H100-H70 frontal trof extending SW acrs the FL Big 
Bend into the NE GOMex...a weak frontal boundary within the trof 
draped over central FL extending from Ft. Myers to Daytona Beach. 
Mrng RAOBs display the boundary well with PWat running btwn 1.50"-
1.75" ahead of the front, dropping to 1.00"-1.25" in its wake. 
Overall cloud cover is rather sparse, despite H100-H70 mean RH 
values arnd 80pct. Mid lyrs dry out quickly with H50-H70 dewpoint 
depressions btwn 15-20C. 

Aloft, a 100KT jet streak in the H30-H20 lyr is lifting off the 
Space/Treasure Coasts...placing most of the CWA under its descending 
left entrance quad...winds diminish to a 30KT min over the NE GOMex. 
This has allowed a clear delineation btwn mid/upr lvl lift and 
descent with positive mid lvl omega/upr lvl divergence along and 
south of the I-4 Corridor, bcmg negative to the north. Mid lvl temps 
remain quite cool with H50 readings arnd -10C in the vcnty of Lake-
O, decreasing to arnd -12C north of I-4.

With the frontal trof axis impinging on the I-4 Corridor, anticipate 
PoPs dropping to AOB 10pct as the descending airmass in its wake 
works its way into central FL. South of I-4, lingering moisture, 
cool mid lvl temps, and sfc/bndry lyr convergence provided by the 
front will combine to keep low end PoPs in the fcst this aftn. Tsras 
psbl over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region as max temps warm into 
the L/M80s, but a slgt chc at best as current parameters will trend 
to a more stable WX pattern. Aftn max temps will in the L/M80s over 
most of the CWA, near 80s alng the Volusia/N Brevard coasts. 

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 11/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 10/18Z...W/SW 5-8KTS bcmg W/NW 8-12KTS. Btwn 10-18Z-
10/21Z...N of KISM-KMLB bcmg N/NE 8-12KTs. Btwn 11/01Z-11/04Z...N of 
KISM-KMLB bcmg N/NE AOB 3KTS...S of KISM-KMLB bcmg W/NW AOB 3KTS.   

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 10/18Z...areas MVFR cigs btwn FL015-030. Btwn 
10/18Z-10/24Z...S of KOBE-KVRB chc MVFR shras/slgt chc IFR tsras... 
S of KLAL-KEVB chc MVFR shras...N of KLAL-KEVB slgt chc MVFR shras. 
Aft 11/06Z...interior sites ptchy MVFR vsbys in BR.  

&&

.MARINE...
Weak sfc low centered off the Carolina Coast will drag a cold 
front thru central FL this aftn, which in turn, will result in a 
steady windshift today thru late tonight. A light to gentle W/SW 
breeze thru mid aftn...veering to N/NW north of Sebastian Inlet and 
W/NW south of the Inlet by late aftn, then N/NE thru late evng. Seas 
2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT offshore thru mid aftn, subsiding to AOB 
2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore by late aftn. Chc of shras 
areawide...slgt chc of tsras Treasure Coast waters south of Vero 
Beach.  

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Volkmer