544 
FXUS62 KFFC 281746 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.UPDATE...

No changes to the forecast.

41 

.Previous...
SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Dry airmass in place due to high pressure at the surface and aloft.
The upper ridge moves off through Friday allowing for high level
moisture to increase and the surface ridge moves east and south
allowing for some lower level moisture increase.
Not enough moisture is expected for any rain chances so this
period will continue to be dry.

Forecast high temperatures are running within 3 degrees of normal
across the area today and near to about 5 degrees above normal on
Friday. Forecast low temperatures are running within around 5 degrees
of normal for tonight.

Overall confidence is high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Upper level WSW flow will be in place over the southeastern CONUS to 
begin the period, with a gradual moisture return ongoing across the 
forecast area. At the surface, surface high pressure will be moving 
eastward, setting up southerly low-level flow which will further 
contribute to increasing moisture. Cloud cover and relative humidity 
will be on the rise in the early parts of the weekend. Meanwhile, 
the next system will approach the area as an upper-level longwave
trough drops southeastward from the Midwest into the Tennessee 
Valley on Saturday night. At the surface, a cold front will 
stretch into the the Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night and
push eastward into Georgia during the day Sunday. 

Model guidance is in good agreement regarding the handling of the 
frontal passage and the timing of the associated precipitation, with 
the boundary entering northwest Georgia early Sunday morning, then 
pushing southeastward before exiting the area late Sunday night. 
Guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the total 
rainfall amounts associated with this system, with the agreement 
being that this will be a relatively dry system. Rainfall amounts 
are anticipated to be about a half of an inch or less, mainly 
focused across the far northern tier. Enough instability is 
expected to be present with this system to warrant a mention of a 
slight chance of thunder, with the highest likelihood during the 
afternoon hours across central Georgia. Weak low-level shear and 
lapse rates as the front crosses the area indicate that the threat
for organized severe thunderstorms will be low. Will continue to 
monitor severe potential as guidance continues to get a better 
handle on things.

After the trough moves off to the east, the upper-level flow pattern 
across the CONUS becomes less amplified and more progressive. Weak 
high pressure is expected to briefly build over the area on Monday. 
Models then become divergent on the handling of a shortwave behind 
the cold front in the early parts of next week. The latest ECMWF 
develops the wave further to the west than the GFS, spreading 
widespread precipitation throughout the forecast area throughout 
the day on Tuesday. In contrast, the latest GFS brings some 
precipitation associated with this wave to only the southern half 
of the forecast area Monday night, then extends further northward
on Tuesday only after it has moved eastward out of Georgia. To 
account for the lingering uncertainty, included only low-end 
chance PoPs across central Georgia and mostly slight chance PoPs 
further north on Monday night into Tuesday.

King

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

Min humidities are running about 17 to 30 percent across the area
this afternoon with some areas getting 3 to 5 hours duration at 
25 percent or less. Fuels dried inconsistently yesterday so no 
statement for high fire danger at this time. Most winds are expected
to be around 5 mph. 
Some moisture increases for Friday with Min humidities of 25-40 
percent
expected with winds less than 10 mph.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions continuing. Surface winds east to southeast less than
10 kts becoming calm or light and variable by 00z. Winds southwest
8 to 10kts after 14z Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence for all elements. 

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  41  73  52 /   0   0   0   5 
Atlanta         67  45  72  54 /   0   0   0   5 
Blairsville     64  39  68  48 /   0   0   5   5 
Cartersville    68  43  72  52 /   0   0   5   5 
Columbus        71  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   5 
Gainesville     65  42  70  52 /   0   0   0   5 
Macon           69  43  75  51 /   0   0   0   5 
Rome            68  44  72  52 /   0   0   5   5 
Peachtree City  69  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   5 
Vidalia         73  46  78  55 /   0   0   0   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...41