277 
FXUS62 KJAX 220725
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.NEAR TERM /Today-Tonight/...

Today...Another surface trof will push across the SE U.S. just 
north of the region, but will not be as strong as yesterday so 
West to Northwest surface winds will be sustained in the 10-15 mph
with peak gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Skies will remain sunny 
with Max Temps close to climo values in the lower to middle 70s.

Tonight...Trof pushes offshore NE of the region while next High
Pressure center builds NW of the region. Cool and dry Northwest
steering flow will weaken through the night and with clear skies
expect below normal temps in the 40s area-wide, with some upper
30s possible in normally colder inland locations.

.SHORT TERM /Sat-Sun/...

Mid/upper level shortwave ridge initially over the MS valley will 
shift quickly ewd over the weekend and push offshore by Sun night. 
Broad sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley will move southeast and 
push offshore of the east coast. This will result in fairly
light northeast to east flow on Saturday, then east and southeast 
increased winds on Sunday. A continuation of dry conditions 
with near seasonal afternoon temps and cooler than normal nighttime 
lows for Saturday. Skies to be mostly sunny with just a few high 
clouds. Expected southeast flow on Sunday will result in warmer aftn 
temps with dew-points responding into the mid 50s along the coastal 
areas. Again, mostly sunny with a few cumulus and some high clouds 
at times. The next frontal system will move to the TN valley to 
southeast TX late Sunday night. Expecting a light southerly flow on 
Sun night with a gradual increase in low level moisture and possible 
few stratus clouds and localized fog late in the night. Low 
temperatures will be held in the 50s overnight.

.LONG TERM /Mon-Thu/...
Monday...southwest low level flow expected ahead of the approaching 
cold front with temperatures warming to the upper 70s and possibly 
lower 80s. Fairly weak dynamics aloft and deeper moisture north of 
the area will result in low POPs on Monday with the best chance of 
showers or an isolated t-storm over southeast GA as the front nears 
the area. Cold front looks to push through our forecast area quickly 
Monday night as a sfc wave forms over SC area and pushes southeast 
and offshore. Expect a low chance of showers during this time frame.

Tuesday-Tuesday night, a surge of north-northeast winds likely to 
develop behind the front ushering cool/moist air and chance of 
showers due to strong convergence. Highs on Tuesday well into the 
70s srn zones but may be held to upper 60s to lower 70s northern 
zones. 

Wednesday, a lower chance of showers and mainly along the coastal 
areas as drier air may filter in from the north and northeast as low 
pressure along the front scoots well offshore over the wrn Atlantic. 
Temperatures cooler in the 60s to near 70. Breezy-windy northeast 
flow expected due to a strong sfc high pressure system located to 
our north over mid Atlantic area. 

Wednesday night into Thursday, sfc high pressure ridge will drift 
into the region from the north resulting in weaker pressure gradient 
and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Slightly warmer Thursday 
with highs into the lower and mid 70s, slightly cooler at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with SKC and some W-NW winds pushing back to 10G15 knots after
14z to 15z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conds offshore and SCEC nearshore with W-NW
winds 15-25 knots early this morning and seas 4-8 ft and will see
slow decrease in winds/seas through the day with SCA flags ending
by late this morning. As High pressure builds north of the waters
this weekend winds become Northeast Saturday then Southeast on
Sunday generally at speeds close to 10-15 knots with seas coming
down to 2-4 ft. Winds become Southwest ahead of the next front on
Monday, then out of the Northwest-North on Tuesday following the
next frontal system with SCA possible.

Rip Currents: Despite the offshore flow today, easterly swells
still running close to 2 ft at the local buoys will still support
a Moderate risk today, then likely down to a Low Risk on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critically low RH again today but average wind speeds will likely 
stay below 15 mph area-wide so no red flag warnings. Dispersion 
values will be a bit elevated in a few areas. Saturday, critically 
low RH values again mainly inland areas and winds will likely again 
be less than 15 mph. Sunday, min RH values not as low due to 
gradual increase in low level moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0 
SSI  69  50  67  52 /   0   0   0   0 
JAX  75  45  72  50 /   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  74  49  71  54 /   0   0   0   0 
GNV  75  43  77  49 /   0   0   0   0 
OCF  76  42  77  49 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Waters 
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hess/Shashy