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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-03-18 23:37 UTC
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153 FXUS64 KCRP 182337 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .DISCUSSION... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue with cloud deck mainly in the 7-10kft layer, however during the day on Tuesday will see a lower deck develop...but should stay just above the MVFR threshold. A few showers will be possible late in the night and during tomorrow. Chances rather slim, but will keep a VCSH for ALI and CRP during the late morning and afternoon where chances are more likely. Winds light to moderate from the northeast to southeast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)... The left front quadrant of an upper jet streak (GFS deterministic) may contribute to isolated showers this evening over the SRN CWA. Otherwise, the MSAS depicts the development of a weak coastal trough. Deterministic models predict this trough to persist tonight/Tuesday. The NAM deterministic predicts PWAT values to increase above normal over the SRN CWA/SRN MSA tonight/Tuesday. Expect the coastal trough/moisture to result in isolated/scattered showers late tonight/Tuesday over the SRN CWA/SRN MSA. Tuesday night, the right rear quadrant of another upper jet may provide lift to mainly the CNTRL/WRN CWA and contribute to isolated showers. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday) A weak upper ridge builds in to south Texas by Wednesday. However, a few light showers will linger across the western areas Wednesday and Thursday with cloudy skies continuing elsewhere due to weak isentropic upglide. A strong upper low will move into the California Coast on Thursday and slide eastward toward the Four Corners area by late week into the weekend. Will see rain chances increase areawide Friday through Saturday as weak shortwaves move around the base of the upper low. Sea fog also expected to develop over the bays and near shore waters as warm air moves over the cool water. Drier air moves in on Sunday and Monday as the upper low heads northeast. Will see clouds clear out with afternoon highs warming back into the 80s. MARINE... A coastal trough will contribute to isolated/scattered convection tonight/Tuesday. Anticipate SCEC wind/seas overnight over the offshore waters. SCA seas may occur Tuesday/Tuesday night offshore. Coordinated with BRO WFO and will defer to later shifts to decide on timing of SCA issuance, if any. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected on Wednesday, with winds shifting to the northeast by Thursday morning as high pressure builds in. Winds will shift back to the southeast on Friday, with moderate to strong onshore flow possible from Friday into Saturday. Scattered convection is expected Friday through Saturday as upper level disturbances interact with the deepening moisture over the region. Sea fog will likely form over the bays and near shore waters Saturday and continue into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 53 69 59 70 58 / 10 20 10 20 10 Victoria 48 70 53 72 50 / 10 10 10 10 10 Laredo 51 69 57 70 57 / 10 20 30 30 30 Alice 50 69 56 71 57 / 10 20 20 30 20 Rockport 55 68 59 69 57 / 10 20 10 20 10 Cotulla 46 68 55 71 55 / 10 10 20 20 10 Kingsville 51 69 58 71 58 / 20 20 20 30 20 Navy Corpus 57 69 62 68 59 / 20 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PH/83...AVIATION