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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-03-18 11:57 UTC
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858 FXUS64 KCRP 181157 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 657 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 .DISCUSSION... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion. && .AVIATION... VFR. Thick cirrus expected through the period, with low-level clouds around 4000 FT expected to build in through the day. A more E-ly flow is expected to develop today, but should turn back out of the NE overnight (exception of LRD remaining E-ly through the period). && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... High pressure to the north and a coastal trough to the south will keep a rather E-NE flow at the surface across South Texas. This should allow temperatures to remain rather cool in the 60s to near 70 degrees across the Brush Country. West-southwesterly flow in the midlevels will continue to stream in moisture and lead to thick cirrus through the short term. An embedded shortwave in the midlevel flow will aide in showers/light rain across Deep South Texas which may nudge into the southern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. For this, did mention light rain in the wx grids for those southern portions in the CWA for today. A weak inverted trough will begin to enter the waters tonight and slowly push inland Tuesday. This will increase rain chances for the waters and the southern half of the CWA. Winds will become more easterly tonight and strengthen to more moderate levels. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for the gulf waters tonight. Temperatures will still be cool for Tuesday with highs in the 60s. As winds strengthen and become more easterly, the risk for rip currents is expected to increase for Tuesday, with possible High Risk for the gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast. Will need to monitor tide-levels for potential of Coastal Flood Tuesday as swell periods and swell height are expected to increase through Tuesday. The main caveat on coastal flooding is the prediction of tides exiting the astronomical higher tides. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Even though a short wave upper ridge over the southern Rockies into northern Mexico Tuesday night will move eastward to the southern plains down into south Texas Thursday, rain chances will continue over portions of the region as isentropic lift persists. The weak isentropic upglide will be near the 295K level Tuesday night with a chance for light precipitation along I-37 and southwest. The isentropic lift will increase through the 295-300K layer over the Brush Country on Wednesday where the rain chances will be slightly better. A short wave trough will move southeast through the Ozarks Wednesday and the mid-Mississippi River valley Wednesday night. This will send a reinforcing push of high pressure into the region for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This will usher in some drier air into the coastal plains with the rain chances lingering over the Brush Country for Wednesday night and Thursday. A strong upper trough will move into California on Wednesday with an upper low moving across the Great Basin on Thursday. The upper low will then move northeast through the Four Corners region on Friday with the upper trough extending south into northern Mexico. Low level flow/moisture will steadily increase Friday into Saturday as low pressure deepens over the southern high plains. Scattered convection will be possible Friday through Saturday as impulses in the southwest flow aloft move out of Mexico into the region with the upper trough lifting northeast into the southern plains. The warm air advecting across the cooler shelf waters will likely form sea fog again over the bays and near shore waters over the weekend. Higher moisture will move east by Sunday but isolated to scattered convection will be possible over the coastal plains in advance of pacific front. MARINE... Persistent weak to moderate northeast flow today will shift out of the east and become more moderate tonight and Tuesday across the gulf waters. Small should exercise caution tonight and Tuesday over the gulf waters. Rain chances increase late tonight and Tuesday as a weak coastal trough moves into the region. A moderate onshore flow will over the offshore waters Tuesday night will become weak to moderate on Wednesday. The winds will shift to northeast again for a brief period late Wednesday night/Thursday morning as high pressure pushes into the area. The winds will become southeasterly Friday and increase as low pressure forms over the southern high plains with moderate to strong onshore flow possible from Friday into Saturday. Scattered convection is expected Friday through Saturday as upper level disturbances interact with the deepening moisture over the region. Sea fog will likely form over the bays and near shore waters Saturday and continue into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 67 54 68 58 71 / 10 20 30 20 30 Victoria 67 48 70 52 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 Laredo 68 51 68 56 71 / 10 10 20 30 40 Alice 68 51 68 56 72 / 10 10 30 30 40 Rockport 65 55 68 58 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 Cotulla 69 46 66 54 72 / 10 0 10 20 30 Kingsville 67 53 69 57 72 / 10 20 30 30 40 Navy Corpus 65 56 68 60 69 / 10 20 30 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ CB/85...AVIATION