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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-03-18 04:27 UTC
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460 FXUS64 KFWD 180427 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFs/ Tranquil flying conditions will persist through the day Monday, characterized by light winds and only passing upper-level clouds. Winds will be quite light and variable at times at our local airports through the remainder of the night. Placement of a weak surface ridge axis may tend to support slight southeasterly flow at Metroplex sites and northerly flow at KACT. However, northerly winds less than 5 kt may occur across DFW as well at times. After sunrise, a deepening boundary layer should encourage a return to more consistent south/southeasterly winds, albeit light and less than 10 kt. Picca && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 318 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019/ /Tonight and Monday/ Our quiescent stretch of weather will continue to start of the week. High pressure will shift off to the east of the region tonight and will eventually allow light southerly flow to return. A weak shortwave will move across the Trans-Pecos region on Monday, but with low-level moisture remaining in short supply, only anticipating a slight increase in mid-high cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. Nudged high temperatures up a bit above the blended guidance which has been a touch too cool over the past few days. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 318 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019/ /Monday Night Through Saturday Night/ A shortwave will lift northeast out of Northern Mexico and into a faster and more confluent/fast mid-level flow over North and Central Texas. Though the NAM12 has some potential isolated showers associated with this feature, instability and moisture per model point soundings look benign and lacking respectively to introduce any low measurable rain chances with this feature. I do suspect there will be plentiful mid-high level cloudiness associated with this feature through the morning hours Tuesday. The shortwave and its associated cloud cover should disperse quickly east out of the area by afternoon -- allowing plentiful insolation to combine with continued south winds for highs to warm quickly to between 65 and 70 degrees. Another more potent shortwave disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream will dive southeastward from the Central Plains/Ozarks toward the Lower Mississippi Valley later Tuesday and Wednesday. Models have varying degree of intensity with this shortwave as it drags a weak cold front into the region. I will continue with only a mention of sprinkles at this time, as we remain just southwest of the better large scale ascent with dry air being plentiful below 700mb. In addition, a relatively warm layer aloft between 600-500mb should basically keep instability at a very bare minimum. Highs should remain in the 60s -- warmest across Central Texas despite some higher level cloudiness that exits the area again Wednesday night. Models continue to struggle with the organizing mid level low diving southward across Southern California and The Great Basin region Thursday into Friday. A pretty stout shortwave ridge will form over the state and Southern Plains well in advance of this feature and in wake of our aforementioned mid-week disturbance to the exiting east of North and Central Texas. Even as the shortwave ridge slides east over the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, the subsequent and increasing southwest flow aloft will likely enhance an elevated mixed layer (EML or capping inversion) across our area. Per coordination with sister offices, a slower trend of convective chances was agreed upon meaning a few showers arriving underneath a slow-rising EML is possible Thursday night and early Friday, before large-scale ascent and low level warm advection increase Friday night and into Saturday. As for any threat for strong or severe storms, the latter appears to be fairly unlikely. Surface dew points will be in the 40s Friday before south winds bring modified Gulf moisture northward with an increase into the lower-mid 50 range on Saturday. This will basically lend to non-existent SBCAPE with just some increasing, but modest "elevated" instability and fairly marginal effective shear values, as the system out west is slow to move with no systems upstream to "kick" it along until we move into next weekend. That said, shower activity should become more likely across the West Friday night, then spread eastward on Saturday, with better chances shifting east of I-35 Saturday night and Sunday. We certainly can't rule out a few stronger, "elevated" storms containing sub-severe hail later Friday Night and through Saturday night as lapse rates steepen across the region and MUCAPE values above the boundary layer increase to between 500-1000 J/KG. It is very difficult to diagnose thermodynamic environments this far out in time, but multiple-model point soundings at this time are in fairly good agreement that any severe weather threat looks very limited, or "nil" at this time. Localized forecast rainfall amounts to between 1-1.25 inches across our southwest counties may lead to runoff and minor flood issues across low-lying areas. However, any threat for flash flooding -- like it's severe weather counterpart is looking unlikely next weekend. Temperatures should continue to be mild with lows 45-55 degrees and highs warming to between 65-70 degrees, as breezy south winds crank up to between 15-20 mph. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 69 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 39 67 43 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 40 67 42 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 Denton 38 67 43 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 39 68 43 66 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dallas 44 70 46 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 40 68 43 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 43 68 43 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 40 67 44 68 47 / 0 0 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 39 67 42 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 11/30