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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-03-18 01:58 UTC
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233 FXUS64 KOUN 180158 AAA AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 858 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .UPDATE... Frontal boundary in N OK will continue to slowly sink south overnight causing winds to shift to the east and northeast. Overall the going forecast looks pretty good, just made some minor adjustments to account for the boundary position. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 838 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019/ AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR Conditions are expected to continue. A weak cold front will move through overnight, which is expected to shift the winds briefly to the northwest in central and northern Oklahoma, however the winds will quickly return to south southeast direction. Ceilings are expected to lower, however they will be scattered and remain in VFR levels. Zwink PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... No major changes were made to this mornings forecast. For tonight, light winds and clear skies should enhance radiational cooling for one more night, keeping nighttime temperatures slightly cooler than normal for mid March. However low temperatures for tonight should stay just above freezing across our area. A stalled cold front across far northern Oklahoma may keep temperatures just a few degrees cooler near the Oklahoma/Kansas state line. For Monday and through the rest of the period, temperatures will be near normal for both day and night. For Tuesday, a shortwave trough digging southward from the central plains will push a cold front through late in the day. Although moisture return is rather weak in a stable atmosphere, forcing by the surface boundary may be enough to produce some light rain for Wednesday, although keeping POPs low and in the 20s to 30 for now. The GFS solution produces a stronger trough and pushes through much faster than the ECMWF solution, which is weaker and more sluggish. For now, will go with the GFS solution with the rain exiting our area by late Wednesday afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of cool air behind the surface boundary, so temperatures should remain seasonable. Moisture will be gradually making a return toward the end of the week, as our next weather system approaches. A longwave trough out of the west will be making its way to the southern plains, as increasing south winds will continue to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Warm air advection with the moisture could start producing light rain for Thursday night with thunderstorms developing by Friday as the atmosphere begins to destabilize. Storms will continue through the weekend as the upper level system begins moving in. For now, both ECMWF and GFS keep the strongest moisture advection across eastern Texas, so expect this weekends storms to remain below severe levels at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 37 64 40 61 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 36 64 38 63 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 37 66 41 66 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 36 64 38 61 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 38 61 40 61 / 0 0 0 30 Durant OK 40 67 41 63 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 25/30