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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV Received: 2019-02-23 13:24 UTC
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110 FXUS64 KSHV 231324 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 724 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 .AVIATION... A warm front continues to push northward across the region this morning. Ahead of the warm front, dense fog is prevailing mostly north of a line from KLFK to KSHV to KMLU. At the same time strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and move eastward across the terminals through noon. Visibilities and ceilings will drop flight conditions down to MVFR/IFR/LIFR for most locations. Flight conditions will improve behind the convection as it moves eastward but southwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph will move into the region. A cold front will eventually move across the region late this evening and winds will shift to the northwest. /20/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/ A complex forecast is in store for the region today. First thing first, a warm front continues to slowly move northward over the area. Its currently located along a line from Hemphill Texas to Jena Louisiana. Along and north of the front, Dense Fog continues to develop across the region. Decided to extend the Dense Fog Advisory as far north as the Interstate 30 corridor until 9am to account for this trend. In addition to the fog, our well advertise severe weather threat still looks possible. The previous mentioned warm front is expected to continue its slow push northward before stalling and mixing out along a line from Lufkin Texas to Shreveport Louisiana to Magnolia Arkansas. Warmer and more humid air will move into areas south of the warm front. At the same time a longwave trough will become negatively tilted as it continues to eject into the TX/OK Panhandle region. The trough and associated cold front will rapidly push towards the region today. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough will develop over east Texas near sunrise. As the pre-frontal trough shifts eastward, large scale forcing will develop resulting in a broken line of of convection across East Texas. The convection will begin to intensify as in gets into the area south of the aforementioned warm front, where mid level lapse rates will approach 8.5 C/km along with effective bulk shear near 60 kts and Cape values over 1000 J/kg. Freezing levels should also be below 13 kft along with plenty of buoyancy around -20 C. These parameters should yield an environment primed for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for areas generally east of a line from Lufkin Texas to Hope Arkansas, with an Enhanced Risk east of a line from El Dorado Arkansas to Columbia Louisiana. The broken line should eventually consolidate into a MCS as it rapidly advances eastward across the region. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with this line along with some brief heavy rain. Can't rule out some localized flash flooding in some of the stronger storms, especially across south- central Arkansas and north-central Louisiana, where 2-3 inches of rain has has occurred over the past couple of days. The convection should move out of the region by mid afternoon today. Gusty southwest winds 15-20 mph will move into the region, with gusts as high as 30 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be issued by mid morning to account for this. Highs today may approach the mid to upper 70s today as strong dry southwest winds typically yield warm temperatures across the region. The trough and associated cold front will move through the region by midnight tonight bringing much cooler and drier air. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s across most of the region. A much drier and cooler day expected Sunday with mostly clear skies and highs near 60 degrees. /20/ LONG TERM.../Sunday Night through Saturday/ The drying trend continues into early next week with near zonal flow noted in the mid levels of the atmosphere. That flow does become slightly southwest by Tuesday with good model consensus now of some light precipitation possible in the Tue thru Friday timeframe. Temperatures during this time frame will be near normal for late February with no real cold air to speak of. As we move into late next week into next weekend, medium range progs diverge with the GFS bringing a surge of cold air into the Southern Plains late Friday into Saturday with the aid of a 1040mb sfc ridge moving into the Central Plains. The Canadian is similar but delays this shot of cold air until just beyond this forecast period and the ECMWF is even slower than that. Needless to say this cold air will be a change from next weeks pattern whenever it arrives and will be watched closely in future model runs. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 42 60 36 / 90 0 0 0 MLU 77 44 60 36 / 90 0 0 0 DEQ 70 36 58 30 / 60 0 0 0 TXK 72 38 58 34 / 70 0 0 0 ELD 73 40 59 30 / 90 0 0 0 TYR 71 40 60 37 / 60 0 0 0 GGG 72 40 60 37 / 70 0 0 0 LFK 73 42 63 38 / 90 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ059>061- 070>073. LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>019-021. OK...None. TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 20