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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2019-02-23 11:31 UTC
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982 FXUS64 KAMA 231131 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 531 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS... Main aviation concerns with this TAF issuance are the continued IFR/LIFR ceilings and blowing snow potential at GUY later this morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings should clear out of AMA in short order this morning. DHT is a bit more complex, as brief relief may occur but clouds from the wrap around region of a low pressure to the northeast should keep them MVFR most of the morning. GUY looks to remain in IFR/LIFR ceilings through this afternoon, with a period around midday seeing quarter mile visibilities and blowing snow. Very strong - with gusts perhaps reaching 50 knots - west and northwest winds are expected at all terminals by late morning. Expect these to subside by this evening. Skies go clear after sunset and aviation concerns lessen considerably for the latter parts of the TAF period. Ferguson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 510 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/ DISCUSSION... In the immediate short term, will allow Dense Fog Advisory to expire on schedule at 6 AM this morning for ern half of the TX Panhandle as vsbys are above one quarter of a mile. For today, a vigorous upper level storm system will continue to affect the OK and TX Panhandles with a variety of weather elements. All short range models, including the 00Z GFS which has been further north on its track the last couple days, are in agreement that this storm system will move along the Interstate 40 corridor into the wrn TX Panhandle early this morning, then turn newd along HWY 60 into nw OK by early this afternoon. Based on this forecast track, highest pops overall were placed in the OK Panhandle with lowest non-mentionable values in the far srn TX Panhandle. Snowfall accumulations appear to be greatest across the OK Panhandle, with a couple inches possible. The nw TX and parts of the far nrn TX Panhandle may have up to one inch of snowfall accumulation, with little to no accumulation elsewhere in the TX Panhandle. Short range models continue to suggest a high wind threat across the region today, and have retained the High Wind Warning issued earlier for the TX Panhandle until 6 PM today. The combination of similar wind speeds across the OK Panhandle plus the possibility of a couple inches of snowfall accumulation may cause near whiteout conditions for at least a few hours, primarily over northern sections of Cimarron, Texas, and Beaver counties up against the CO and KS state lines. Also, some concern that snow falling in sern CO east into western KS may actually blow into parts of the OK Panhandle due to the expected strong winds and reduce vsbys accordingly. Based on the above and after coordinating with surrounding offices, have decided to convert Winter Weather Advisory issued earlier to a Blizzard Warning for the OK Pnhndl until 6 PM today with emphasis on the northern parts of each county in the OK Pnhdl being most impacted. Rapidly improving conditions are expected by sunset this evening with no plans to extend any highlights past 6 PM today. A return to dry weather is forecast from Sunday through Friday. Utilized Superblend model consensus for all weather elements during this time period as most time and effort was spend in the first 5 periods of this fcst pckg. 02 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill... Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman... Wheeler. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth... Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson... Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler. OK...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 77/02