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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-23 02:23 UTC
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172 FXUS64 KOUN 230223 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 823 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers that moved across southern and central Oklahoma this afternoon are mainly confined to north central parts of the state this evening. Meanwhile, isentropic ascent within a relatively deep saturated layer will yield drizzle and a few light showers. By midnight, some drying in this layer may bring an end to the precipitation for a period of time, before large scale lift increase to west. Will also need to watch trends for dense fog. Any fog that forms this evening and overnight will quickly dissipate, as surface winds veer early Saturday morning/or higher precipitation rates help. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... IFR and LIFR conditions along with drizzle or occasionally light rain will persist until Saturday morning. Then a front approaching from the west will bring extremely windy conditions with west winds gusting over 45 knots in southwestern quarter of Oklahoma. Clearing will quickly follow with the frontal passage which will arrive to central Oklahoma by late morning. Strong and gusty southwest then northwest winds will dominate into the late afternoon with VFR conditions. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ DISCUSSION... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are becoming a bit more numerous now thanks to fairly stout isentropic ascent. Instability will remain low, however, so do not expect too many thunderstorms. Elsewhere, drizzle and perhaps fog will be possible until 09Z when the low level winds begin to veer. Precip chances will increase over western, northern, and central OK late tonight into early Saturday morning as the closed low lifts northeastward. Some snowfall, and blowing snow, can't be ruled out over extreme NW OK after sunrise Saturday but dendritic layer moisture on the backside of the low should remain north of OK/KS border so decided not to issue a WWY. Near this feature's southern flank, a dry slot and strong westerly winds should shut most of the precip down over our area. Mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in high winds over much of western/sw OK and western N TX tomorrow, with patchy blowing dust being advected eastward of the TX high plains. The wind speeds should decrease dramatically after 06Z for most of the area behind the cold front. A much drier and cooler airmass will accompany it through Sunday. By Monday, quasizonal upper level flow is expected across much of the CONUS and temperatures will quickly rebound with southerly level flow ahead of the next approaching front across KS. Disagreements arise by Tue regarding the progression of the aforementioned front. Most solutions suggest very little amplitude in the synoptic flow through Tue so decided not to go with the more aggressive solutions like the ECMWF and NAM. However, given it will initially be a shallow cold pool these shouldn't be disregarded and decided to cut somewhere in the middle. The cold front will be reinforced Wed, though, as the flow does appear to amplify with the second polar vortex moving over the Great Lakes region. Some rain, and perhaps freezing rain, will be possible along and behind this front as several minor mid level shortwave troughs pass over the southern plains. Expect temps to drop down below average Wed and Thu, if not through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 45 57 28 52 / 50 30 0 0 Hobart OK 42 57 25 54 / 80 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 47 64 30 57 / 60 20 0 0 Gage OK 36 49 21 52 / 90 70 0 0 Ponca City OK 42 56 27 49 / 50 80 0 0 Durant OK 48 63 33 56 / 50 40 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ004-005- 010>013-015-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>047-050-051. High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ009-014- 016-021>023-033>038-044. TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for TXZ083>090. && $$