National Weather Service Raw Text Product

172 
FXUS64 KOUN 230223
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
823 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers that moved across southern and central
Oklahoma this afternoon are mainly confined to north central
parts of the state this evening. Meanwhile, isentropic ascent
within a relatively deep saturated layer will yield drizzle and a
few light showers. By midnight, some drying in this layer may 
bring an end to the precipitation for a period of time, before 
large scale lift increase to west. 

Will also need to watch trends for dense fog. Any fog that forms 
this evening and overnight will quickly dissipate, as surface 
winds veer early Saturday morning/or higher precipitation rates 
help. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
IFR and LIFR conditions along with drizzle or occasionally light
rain will persist until Saturday morning. Then a front approaching
from the west will bring extremely windy conditions with west
winds gusting over 45 knots in southwestern quarter of Oklahoma.
Clearing will quickly follow with the frontal passage which will 
arrive to central Oklahoma by late morning. Strong and gusty 
southwest then northwest winds will dominate into the late 
afternoon with VFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are becoming a bit more 
numerous now thanks to fairly stout isentropic ascent. Instability
will remain low, however, so do not expect too many 
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, drizzle and perhaps fog will be possible
until 09Z when the low level winds begin to veer. Precip chances 
will increase over western, northern, and central OK late tonight 
into early Saturday morning as the closed low lifts northeastward.
Some snowfall, and blowing snow, can't be ruled out over extreme 
NW OK after sunrise Saturday but dendritic layer moisture on the 
backside of the low should remain north of OK/KS border so decided
not to issue a WWY. Near this feature's southern flank, a dry 
slot and strong westerly winds should shut most of the precip down
over our area. Mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result 
in high winds over much of western/sw OK and western N TX 
tomorrow, with patchy blowing dust being advected eastward of the 
TX high plains. The wind speeds should decrease dramatically after
06Z for most of the area behind the cold front. A much drier and 
cooler airmass will accompany it through Sunday.

By Monday, quasizonal upper level flow is expected across much of
the CONUS and temperatures will quickly rebound with southerly
level flow ahead of the next approaching front across KS.
Disagreements arise by Tue regarding the progression of the 
aforementioned front. Most solutions suggest very little amplitude
in the synoptic flow through Tue so decided not to go with the
more aggressive solutions like the ECMWF and NAM. However, given
it will initially be a shallow cold pool these shouldn't be
disregarded and decided to cut somewhere in the middle. The cold
front will be reinforced Wed, though, as the flow does appear to
amplify with the second polar vortex moving over the Great Lakes
region. Some rain, and perhaps freezing rain, will be possible
along and behind this front as several minor mid level shortwave
troughs pass over the southern plains. Expect temps to drop down
below average Wed and Thu, if not through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  57  28  52 /  50  30   0   0 
Hobart OK         42  57  25  54 /  80  20   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  47  64  30  57 /  60  20   0   0 
Gage OK           36  49  21  52 /  90  70   0   0 
Ponca City OK     42  56  27  49 /  50  80   0   0 
Durant OK         48  63  33  56 /  50  40   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ004-005-
     010>013-015-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>047-050-051.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ009-014-
     016-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$