415 
FXUS63 KFGF 222150
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
350 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over WY. Short wave will 
move east across the Red River Valley for tonight and Sat. An upper 
level jet streak will be east of the short wave and may enhance snow 
locally tonight.  

Radar was showing a band of snow from near Oakes ND to north of PKD.
expect a heavier band of snow to occur in this area this afternoon 
and evening. Low visibilities can be expected in the heavier snow 
bands. Think heavier snow bands could have 3-5 inches. 

Some freezing drizzle possible for tonight mainly in the far south 
or southeast zones. Will keep winter weather advisory going for 
tonight with snow. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Saturday night into Sunday an arctic front set to push through the 
region falling temps and strong winds creating reduced visibilities. 
Blowing snow table per Canadian blowing snow study using winds speed 
and age of snow shows impacts to be near ground blizzard conditions 
for the Red River valley and how severely reduced visibilities are 
will depend on actual temps/wind speeds. If temps fall faster and 
winds are higher than current forecast ground blizzard conditions 
are likely to develop. Nonetheless open country travel on Sunday 
will be difficult. The arctic airmass will bring a return of single 
digit highs above and below zero to the region for Monday. SFC high 
pressure is a bit weaker with the latest models and bring a wave 
into the high Tuesday along the zonal flow aloft. Current thinking 
is that any snow lift will be too weak to bring snow Tuesday and 
Wednesday into the area and the blend of solns have lowered amounts 
with up to 2 vs 2 to 3" we had. Thinking that will continue to lower 
as dry airmass and 1040mb high will be stubborn to push east quickly 
with precip to the south and west more likely. Through the first 
half of the week wind chill values will be in the 25 to 40 below 
range. Wednesday to Friday still well below normal with warmest 
temps in the teens Thursday before another reinforcing shot of 
colder air enters the first weekend of March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

VFR conditions were across most of the area. Some lower conditions
were moving into the far southwest zones. IFR area over SD will 
move north and east today and tonight. Expect IFR conditions for
tonight and Sat. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for NDZ038-039-
     049-052-053.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for NDZ027>030.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ003-
     029>031.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MNZ001-002-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MNZ005>009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JH