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302 
FXUS64 KSJT 222053
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
253 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Low clouds have slowly cleared generally west to east today with
sunny skies southwest of a Robert Lee to Mason line as of 2 PM,
and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies northeast of that line. Expect
some clearing to continue into the early evening hours before low
clouds fill back in after 6 PM tonight. The main upper level low
is still centered over northern AZ this afternoon, but will pivot
and begin to speed up as it moves east through northern NM, then
northeast across the TX panhandle and into KS. A Pacific cold
front will sweep quickly through the area tonight. There is still
a chance we could see scattered showers and possibly some isolated
thunderstorms along this boundary as it moves through, so have
kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms in through the
overnight hours. 

Late tonight into Saturday, as the upper level low move across NM
and into KS, a surface low will deepen as it moves from
southeastern CO east along the KS/OK border. This will intensify
the surface pressure gradient here, increasing our westerly winds
late tonight into the 20 to 30 mph range. Then, Saturday morning,
as mixing occurs, winds will strengthen even more as 850mb winds
range from 45 to 60 knots over the northern 2/3 of the forecast
area. Although not all of these winds should make it to the
surface, winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph are expected
for areas north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. We aren't
expecting widespread sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or gusts to 
60 mph that would be needed for a High Wind Warning, but
northwestern counties like Haskell, Jones, and Fisher will be near
these conditions and may be upgraded by future shifts. 

In addition, the strong winds, and low relative humidity values
will result in critical fire weather conditions, and a Fire
Weather Watch will also be issued for the afternoon hours. 

20

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Winds will subside Saturday night and become northerly as surface
high pressure and builds into the Texas Panhandle. A weak frontal
boundary will drop southward into the CWA resulting in lows
Sunday morning near or below freezing. Highs on Sunday will range
from the upper 50s in the Big Country to the mid 60s across the
Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Otherwise, a benign 
weather pattern will set up for the first half of next week with 
zonal flow aloft prevailing across the region. Highs from Monday
through Wednesday will climb into the 60s and 70s, with overnight
lows in the 40s. A cold front is forecast to sag southward into
the CWA on Thursday. The GFS stalls the front across the northern
half of the CWA with little in the way of precipitation. The
ECMWF, however, is much cooler and generates some light QPF. For
now, will just advertise a slight chance of PoPs for Thursday with
slightly cooler daytime highs.  

42

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds of 25 to 40 mph, along with gusts over 50 mph, combined with
RH values of 15 to 20 percent are expected by early afternoon
Saturday. Although temperatures will only warm into the 60s, the
winds and RH values will be enough to likely result in critical 
fire weather conditions across areas generally west of a Haskell,
to Menard, to Sonora line. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for these areas for Saturday afternoon. Conditions will steadily
improve from Sunday through the middle of next week. 

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 45  63  33  60 /  40   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 43  64  32  64 /  30   0   0   0 
Junction 	 46  66  31  65 /  30   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 46  64  32  61 /  50   5   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 43  62  34  60 /  40   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 42  63  31  64 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday 
afternoon for Coke-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
Menard-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$