National Weather Service Raw Text Product

584 
FXUS64 KCRP 211135
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
535 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z Aviation

&&

.AVIATION...

Morning fog has not fully develop as of writing but there is a
still a short window this morning, around sunrise, where we could
see patchy fog develop across South Texas. Therefore, carried the
TEMPO for MVFR conditions until 14Z. Strong southeasterly winds 
will be the main concern today due to a strengthening low-level 
jet. Gusts will range from 25-30 knots at all terminals. Winds 
will briefly relax this evening but will pick back up before 
midnight. Onshore flow today will allow for low-level moisture to 
increase leading to low to mid level clouds this afternoon. 
Ceilings are expected to remain VFR throughout the remainder of 
the period. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Onshore flow will continue to strengthen today as low pressure deepens
over the Plains. As a result, Gulf moisture will gradually 
increase across the region. Went with a slight chance of isolated 
showers tonight as moisture increases and a zone of low-level 
moisture convergence sets up across the Northern Coastal Bend and 
Victoria Crossroads. We will see better rain chances on Tuesday as
low-level moisture increases in response to strengthening onshore
flow. Instability remains fairly low, therefore am only expecting
isolated showers throughout the day, mainly confined to the 
northeast portions of the CWA. The fog potential looks to be 
fairly low tonight as a low level jet (around 40 knots at 925 mb) 
will keep us windy enough to negate any fog). 

The strong low-level jet will allow for temperatures to warm over
the next couple of days. Temps today will be slightly above 
normal. Lows tonight are likely to run roughly 10+ degrees above 
normal. Highs on Tuesday will also be several degrees above normal
with some spots across the Southern Coastal Plains nearing 80 
degrees. 

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

A deepening upper level trough will dig into Texas by Tuesday night 
into Wednesday. An associated strong cold front will push through 
South Texas Tuesday night. With a fair amount of moisture pooling 
over South Texas...especially the Coastal Bend and Coastal plains as 
well as upper level divergence, will expect high rain chances 
Tuesday night into Wednesday. CAPE remains limited, thus will 
continue to leave thunder out of the forecast at this time. As upper 
level trough lags a bit behind the front, will keep chance PoPs 
through the Coastal Bend and into the Brush country through mid-day 
Wednesday, then just slight chance to low end chance pops along the 
coast by Wednesday afternoon. Strong offshore flow will develop 
during the day Wednesday behind the front. Wind advisories may be 
needed along the coast for Wednesday morning. Improving conditions 
are expected by Wednesday afternoon as the front quickly pushes 
eastward. Surface ridge builds Thursday with drier conditions and 
lighter winds. Another shortwave rotates through the region on 
Friday with a weak frontal passage expected. With limited moisture 
over the region will keep conditions dry with this front. Over the 
weekend, yet another system becomes possible. Plenty of questions 
still exist with this system as timing and moisture differ between 
models. Have gone ahead and added some slight chance PoPs offshore 
and into the coastal bend to indicate the potential, but confidence 
is only moderate at this time, especially with timing questions 
(ECMWF being quite a bit faster). Not going to get caught up in the 
details of wind and other elements of this front this far our with 
two other fronts expected in the meantime. 

Colder temperatures expected behind the front with highs only in the 
50s on Wednesday. With clear skies and light winds, set up looks 
good for some very cold temperatures Wednesday night. Could 
certainly approach freezing at some inland locations, but so far, 
not expecting a widespread freeze. Slightly warmer temperatures will 
return Thursday into Friday as weak onshore flow resumes. Not 
expecting a significant impact on temperatures with friday front 
with near normal temperatures expected late week and into the 
weekend. 

MARINE...

Onshore flow will strengthen today as our next cold front
approaches the region. Winds will reach Small Craft Advisory
criteria across the offshore waters this evening with the 
nearshore waters likely reaching criteria late in the night. 
While onshore flow weakens Tuesday night, elevated seas will 
likely continue and SCA may need to be extended through the 
evening and night. Once a strong cold front passes early Wednesday
morning, SCA will be necessary once again. Gale force wind gusts 
will be possible for a few hours, and a gale watch may become 
necessary later today. Expect improving conditions Wednesday 
afternoon into Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    68  59  76  44  54  /   0  10  20  70  40 
Victoria          66  57  72  41  52  /   0  20  20  70  50 
Laredo            70  55  74  46  58  /   0  10  10  20  10 
Alice             69  57  79  44  56  /   0  10  10  60  30 
Rockport          66  61  71  43  53  /   0  20  20  70  50 
Cotulla           68  53  72  44  58  /   0  10  10  30  20 
Kingsville        70  58  80  45  56  /   0  10  10  60  30 
Navy Corpus       68  62  72  45  54  /   0  10  20  70  50 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday 
     For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port 
     Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TC/95...AVIATION