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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-01-21 11:35 UTC
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584 FXUS64 KCRP 211135 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 535 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 .DISCUSSION... Update for 12Z Aviation && .AVIATION... Morning fog has not fully develop as of writing but there is a still a short window this morning, around sunrise, where we could see patchy fog develop across South Texas. Therefore, carried the TEMPO for MVFR conditions until 14Z. Strong southeasterly winds will be the main concern today due to a strengthening low-level jet. Gusts will range from 25-30 knots at all terminals. Winds will briefly relax this evening but will pick back up before midnight. Onshore flow today will allow for low-level moisture to increase leading to low to mid level clouds this afternoon. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR throughout the remainder of the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... Onshore flow will continue to strengthen today as low pressure deepens over the Plains. As a result, Gulf moisture will gradually increase across the region. Went with a slight chance of isolated showers tonight as moisture increases and a zone of low-level moisture convergence sets up across the Northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. We will see better rain chances on Tuesday as low-level moisture increases in response to strengthening onshore flow. Instability remains fairly low, therefore am only expecting isolated showers throughout the day, mainly confined to the northeast portions of the CWA. The fog potential looks to be fairly low tonight as a low level jet (around 40 knots at 925 mb) will keep us windy enough to negate any fog). The strong low-level jet will allow for temperatures to warm over the next couple of days. Temps today will be slightly above normal. Lows tonight are likely to run roughly 10+ degrees above normal. Highs on Tuesday will also be several degrees above normal with some spots across the Southern Coastal Plains nearing 80 degrees. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... A deepening upper level trough will dig into Texas by Tuesday night into Wednesday. An associated strong cold front will push through South Texas Tuesday night. With a fair amount of moisture pooling over South Texas...especially the Coastal Bend and Coastal plains as well as upper level divergence, will expect high rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. CAPE remains limited, thus will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast at this time. As upper level trough lags a bit behind the front, will keep chance PoPs through the Coastal Bend and into the Brush country through mid-day Wednesday, then just slight chance to low end chance pops along the coast by Wednesday afternoon. Strong offshore flow will develop during the day Wednesday behind the front. Wind advisories may be needed along the coast for Wednesday morning. Improving conditions are expected by Wednesday afternoon as the front quickly pushes eastward. Surface ridge builds Thursday with drier conditions and lighter winds. Another shortwave rotates through the region on Friday with a weak frontal passage expected. With limited moisture over the region will keep conditions dry with this front. Over the weekend, yet another system becomes possible. Plenty of questions still exist with this system as timing and moisture differ between models. Have gone ahead and added some slight chance PoPs offshore and into the coastal bend to indicate the potential, but confidence is only moderate at this time, especially with timing questions (ECMWF being quite a bit faster). Not going to get caught up in the details of wind and other elements of this front this far our with two other fronts expected in the meantime. Colder temperatures expected behind the front with highs only in the 50s on Wednesday. With clear skies and light winds, set up looks good for some very cold temperatures Wednesday night. Could certainly approach freezing at some inland locations, but so far, not expecting a widespread freeze. Slightly warmer temperatures will return Thursday into Friday as weak onshore flow resumes. Not expecting a significant impact on temperatures with friday front with near normal temperatures expected late week and into the weekend. MARINE... Onshore flow will strengthen today as our next cold front approaches the region. Winds will reach Small Craft Advisory criteria across the offshore waters this evening with the nearshore waters likely reaching criteria late in the night. While onshore flow weakens Tuesday night, elevated seas will likely continue and SCA may need to be extended through the evening and night. Once a strong cold front passes early Wednesday morning, SCA will be necessary once again. Gale force wind gusts will be possible for a few hours, and a gale watch may become necessary later today. Expect improving conditions Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 68 59 76 44 54 / 0 10 20 70 40 Victoria 66 57 72 41 52 / 0 20 20 70 50 Laredo 70 55 74 46 58 / 0 10 10 20 10 Alice 69 57 79 44 56 / 0 10 10 60 30 Rockport 66 61 71 43 53 / 0 20 20 70 50 Cotulla 68 53 72 44 58 / 0 10 10 30 20 Kingsville 70 58 80 45 56 / 0 10 10 60 30 Navy Corpus 68 62 72 45 54 / 0 10 20 70 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ TC/95...AVIATION