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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-01-21 04:57 UTC
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957 FXUS64 KBRO 210457 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1057 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...A very dry airmass over the RGV area will maintain VFR conditions across the region over the next 24 hours. The dry surface ridge will shift steadily eastwards through Monday Night which will allow the surface winds to shift around and increase from the S-SE after sunrise tomorrow. This will allow the low level moisture to increase late in the upcoming TAF period. But this will not be enough to produce any significant cld cover through 06z Tues. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...A very dry airmass over the RGV area will maintain VFR conditions across the region over the next 24 hours. The dry surface ridge will shift steadily eastwards tonight into Monday. This will allow the surface winds to shift around and increase from the S-SE after sunrise tomorrow. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and the south-central United States tonight will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA tonight into Monday before the upper level ridge flattens and shifts eastward Monday. At the surface...high press across the Texas coast tonight will shift eastward as low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies. This will allow the pressure gradient to increase across the lower Texas coast Monday into Mon night. Breezy conditions will develop across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands Mon afternoon and continue into Mon night. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s by early Mon morning with radiational cooling. Temps will warm into the 70s Monday as warm air advection returns and the lack of cloud cover enhances diurnal heating. Lows will be considerably warmer Mon night with the stronger southeast flow across the area. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Warm and windy conditions are expected on Tuesday as the pressure strengthens and southerly flow continues. Temperatures will remain well above normal on Tuesday with as highs should reach the upper 70s to around 80. Model guidance continues to indicate a small opportunity of a wind advisory on Tuesday. Rain chances are expected to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves into deep south Texas. The best chance of showers will mainly be along the front with some enhancement near the coast. Low temperatures Tuesday night should range from the upper 40s across the Ranchlands to the mid 50s along the beaches. High temperatures Wednesday will struggle to reach 60 degrees due to strong CAA and cloudy skies. Rain chances end from west to east as the 500 mb short wave passes overhead with dry air filters into the region. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to fall into upper 30s to the lower 40s under mostly clear skies. Wind chill values may drop into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with modest light north winds. Surface high pressure spreads across the region on Thursday as temperatures slowly recover. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be generally in the 60s. Low temperatures Thursday night should be in the 40s with mostly clear skies. Weak reinforcing surface high pressure will arrive Friday night into Saturday morning allowing mild temperatures to persist. MARINE (Tonight through Monday night): Seas were near 6 feet with north to northeast winds near 12 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon. Light east to southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight as surface high pressure across the lower Texas coast moves eastward. Winds will increase from the southeast Monday as the pressure gradient increases across the western Gulf of Mexico with low pressure developing on the lee side of the Rockies. Moderate southeast winds Monday will increase Monday night and small craft advisories will likely be needed for the coastal waters Mon night as a result as the pressure gradient continues to tighten across the lower Texas coast. Tuesday through Friday night...Strong south winds will continue on Tuesday as the pressure gradient continues to interact with higher pressure across the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory will likely remain place on Tuesday. A cold front is expected to arrive Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning allowing winds to briefly diminish Tuesday night. Strong winds will develop in the wake of the front on Wednesday, with possible gale force gusts on the Gulf. Marine conditions will gradually improve Wednesday night as high pressure spreads across the northwest Gulf. FIRE WEATHER...20 foot winds will increase from the southeast around 15 knots Monday afternoon as temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s provide relative humidity values between 40 and 50 percent across most of the CWA. These conditions will be below Red Flag Warning conditions so no fire weather watch is needed but a fire danger statement will likely be needed for portions of deep south Texas tomorrow especially if winds are higher/relative humidity values are lower than currently forecast. Models continue to suggest the combination of dry air, low relative humidity values and cured fuels will be in place on Wednesday afternoon behind the front. There is an elevated threat of erratic fire behavior and rapid spread potential on Wednesday. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Short Term/Aviation...60 Long Term...64