National Weather Service Raw Text Product

697 
FXUS64 KSHV 100937
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
337 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/
Nwly flow aloft ahead of a sewd diving cut-off low and building
sfc high pressure has resulted in mostly clear skies /save for
some mid/high cloud across our nrn areas ahead of the upper low/
across the region. Rapid radiational cooling has allowed temps
across portions of Northwest/North Central Louisiana and Southern
Arkansas to drop to their sub-32 degree dewpoints, and patchy
dense freezing fog will be possible. Have therefore issued a 
Freezing Fog Advisory for these areas through 9 AM for the 
possibility of some light icing of bridges and overpasses.

Otherwise, very quiet weather on the horizon for the short term
pd, even as the upper low moves ovhd today. Temps should warm to
near 50 degrees across most areas, as the upper disturbance 
brings an reinforcing shot of cold air. Clear skies again tonight
over a cold airmass will allow for freezing or below temps pretty
much areawide. Progressive upper flow pattern will carry the trof
well e of our area by tonight, and nw flow will transition to 
near-zonal by late Tuesday, as another disturbance moves to our n
across the High Plains. Temps Tuesday to warm a bit more, to near
60 for some portions of the region. Clouds likely to increase
Tuesday night as the disturbance moves to our n, but precip 
appears unlikely attm due to lack of available moisture. /12/

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/
Low-level southerly flow to increase on Wednesday ahead of a 
deepening low across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Airmass 
convection ahead of this system on Wednesday afternoon and evening
likely limited to showers due to lack of instability and 
insufficient moisture recovery necessary to support thunderstorms.

As surface and upper-low translate east across the region on 
Thursday, increased instability will allow for isolated 
thunderstorms embedded within widespread showers mainly across north 
Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Heaviest convection to exit the 
region to the east on Thursday night with wrap around moisture on 
backside of low to allow for showers across mainly northeast 
Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Friday morning. Additionally 
strong north winds will bring a reinforcement of cooler air with 
Thursday night lows forecast to fall into the mid 30s across 
Oklahoma and portions of southwest Arkansas. At this time, not 
expecting any frozen precip on backside of departing low across 
these areas on Thursday night. 

Conditions to gradually improve from the west on Friday with high 
temperatures forecast to climb into the mid 50s. Overnight lows on 
Friday night forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s areawide. 

A fairly stable weather pattern to persist through the remainder of 
the long term with only a slight chance of rain on Sunday as an 
upper-level trough moves across the region. Temperatures to range 
from highs around 60 and lows in the 40s through the weekend. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1142 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/ 

AVIATION...
While the cu field continues to quickly shift SSE across the
Toledo Bend Country of Deep E TX/Wcntrl LA attm, a narrow band of
MVFR cigs have redeveloped over the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA, 
between RSN and MLU. This band of cigs should continue to shift S 
away from MLU to start the TAF period, but patchy dense FG has 
developed (and can be observed on satellite imagery) over Ern 
Union and Nrn Ouachita Parishes, which may spill S across the MLU 
terminal and the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA on the heels of the 
departing MVFR cigs. Thus, vsbys may crater to or less than 1/2SM 
at MLU through much of the overnight hours, also resulting in 
VLIFR cigs. As the temps continue to fall to/below freezing overnight,
this FG may become FZFG at MLU, which may result in a thin layer 
of ice on exposed objects. However, the increase of 18-20kft cigs 
along a shortwave trough shifting E into SE OK/extreme NE TX attm 
may temper the FZFG threat should these cigs build farther S 
towards MLU between 10-14Z. The FZFG should lift at MLU by 14Z, 
with SKC expected areawide through the remainder of the TAF 
period. NW winds 5kts or less tonight will range from 5-7kts after
15Z Monday. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  31  58  41 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  47  27  55  36 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  52  27  57  39 /   0   0   0  10 
TXK  48  29  56  41 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  47  26  55  36 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  52  33  58  45 /   0   0   0  10 
GGG  51  30  58  42 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  53  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ073.

LA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ003>006-
     012>014-021.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/05/15