National Weather Service Raw Text Product

818 
FXUS64 KEWX 100927
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
327 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Clear skies are prevailing across much of South-Central Texas this
morning outside of some patchy clouds in the extreme southwestern
CWA. Temperatures are in the 30s with a light freeze currently in
portions of the Hill Country. Temperatures should drop another few
degrees before sunrise when temperatures begin to warm. Highs today
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region under mostly
sunny skies. Another cold night is expected tonight with clear skies
and dry air remaining in place. Another light freeze is possible for
some areas of the Hill Country, but overall, temperatures should be 
a couple of degrees warmer than this overnight period. Highs on 
Tuesday will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s under partly 
cloudy skies. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
For Tuesday night, surface dewpoints and low-level clouds will be on
the increase ahead of our next storm system and lows should respond
and warm into the middle 40s to near 50 degrees. Models have backed
off a bit on the strength of the initial shortwave that will move
through the area on Wednesday. Will just show some 20 PoPs across the
eastern row of counties where there is some slightly better moisture
in place that this system could tap into. A much stronger system will
move in from the northwest on Thursday. Moisture will remain scarce
and will continue to show 20 PoPs in the eastern counties for any
activity ahead of the front. 

The main story with this system will be the strong wind fields behind
the quickly moving upper low. 850 mb winds will be from the 
northwest at 50-55 knots which should translate to the surface with 
speeds possibly in excess of 25 mph with higher gusts. With these 
values, a wind advisory will likely be needed for portions of the 
area. Afternoon humidity values should drop below 30 percent across 
the Rio Grande counties which will lead to elevated fire weather 
conditions. Fuels remain moist which should limit conditions from 
becoming critical. 

The ECMWF has come in with more of a slower and southerly track of
the upper low which also shows some wrap around precipitation. While
thermodynamic profiles would support the production of some wintry 
precipitation, surface temperatures should be too warm for anything
frozen to make it to the surface if this solution verifies. However,
both the GFS and Canadian solutions have the track of the upper low 
both farther north and faster and thus no precipitation. Will show 20
PoPs across the northern and eastern row of counties Thursday night 
with a slight chance of showers mentioned. Shortwave ridging returns 
to the area behind this system with warming temperatures once again 
for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  36  61  49  67 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  57  33  61  47  67 /   0   0   0   0  10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  35  61  49  68 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Burnet Muni Airport            56  34  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  37  60  45  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  34  60  48  65 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Hondo Muni Airport             60  34  62  47  68 /   0   0   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        58  34  61  48  68 /   0   0   0   0  10 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  35  61  48  69 /   0   0   0   0  20 
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  37  61  50  67 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Stinson Muni Airport           59  37  62  50  69 /   0   0   0   0  -  

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire