National Weather Service Raw Text Product

798 
FXUS64 KSJT 100912
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
312 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Looks like a quiet forecast for today and tonight as surface high 
pressure will be over the area. Highs today will be in the 50s and 
lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s. 

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Zonal flow will occur Tuesday through Wednesday, while surface high
pressure to the east brings southerly winds Tuesday, transitioning
to the westerly direction Wednesday as a mid level trough moves
into the region. We should see warming both days, with highs
Tuesday in the upper 50s to low 60s, lows Tuesday night in the low
40s, and highs Wednesday in the low to mid 60s. An increase in mid
and upper level moisture will result in partly to mostly cloudy
skies both days as well. 

Models are starting to differ in the track of a closed low which
moves through the region Thursday. The GFS keeps the low farther 
to the north as it skims the northern Big Country Thursday 
morning and then moves off to the east Thursday afternoon, with 
potentially wrap-around precipitation occurring in the Big 
Country. However, the latest run of the ECMWF is now bringing the 
low farther south, with the core of the low moving over us by 
Thursday afternoon and slowly moving east Thursday night. This 
track would bring widespread precipitation to West Central Texas, 
and even potentially some frozen precipitation. However, since 
this is just one run showing this, we are not biting off on it 
just yet. As the low and associated cold front move through the 
forecast area, the pressure gradient will strengthen significantly
and northwest winds could get pretty strong. The GFS continues to
show northwest winds sustained at 30 KT across the forecast area 
during the day-time hours Thursday. This would produce Wind 
Advisory type impacts, and increase the fire weather threat 
(although the recent rain should mitigate that threat somewhat). 
Finally, we'll see a cool-down, with highs Thursday in the mid to 
upper 50s (if the scenario comes closer to what the current ECMWF 
shows, then these temperatures would be colder than this by at
least 5-10 degrees). Overnight lows Thursday night are currently 
forecast to be in the low 30s. 

Pretty big model differences for Friday into the weekend (GFS
shows upper level ridging Friday and Saturday with a short-wave
on Sunday while the ECMWF doesn't have the ridging moving in until
the weekend), but overall it looks dry with seasonal 
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 56  35  62  42 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 58  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 58  30  60  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 57  31  60  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 55  35  60  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 56  31  56  41 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...SJH