National Weather Service Raw Text Product

755 
FXUS64 KSHV 092359 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
559 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018

.AVIATION...
The back edge of the MVFR cigs have reached a DKR, to RFI, to just
S of SHV, to MNE and BQP line as of 00Z, with VFR cigs expected to
return at LFK and MLU by mid-evening. Still seeing some 10kft 
cigs across SW AR/extreme Nrn LA just behind the MVFR cigs, but 
these will quickly diminish across N LA by mid to late evening. An
upper level shortwave trough entering the Upper Red River Valley 
of SW OK will result in an increasing cirrus shield across Srn 
OK/N TX this evening, eventually spreading across much of the 
region after 06Z Monday. This will quickly diminish from W to E 
between 10-15Z, with SKC expected for the remainder of the 00Z TAF
period. NW winds 5kts or less tonight will range from 5-7kts 
after 15Z Monday. /15/ 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...

Short term concerns will consist of temperatures only as we enjoy
a brief drying out period across the entire Four State Region. 

The trough responsible for bringing so much wet weather to our
region the last 3 days has moved into the Appalachians with 
another trough close on its heels diving southward out of the 
Central/Southern Plains, moving into our region on Monday. This 
next trough coming in dry despite reinforcing the colder air aloft
in association with it. But before this, we will still be 
contending with abundant low level cloud cover this evening but 
all indications are that with a drier, lower atmosphere funneling 
into our region from the north and west tonight, we should lose 
this cloud cover during the overnight hours. With clearing skies 
from northwest to southeast tonight, that should result in 
temperatures really tanking but the lower atmosphere should stay 
slightly mixed with light northwest winds continuing overnight 
which will help to keep temperatures up slightly from what they 
could be if winds went calm overnight. Having said that, will 
still be a cold night with freezing temperatures likely across 
most of the region overnight. With full sun, we should see 
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Monday vs what we 
have seen so far today. 

Sfc ridge is directly ovhd Monday Night and with calm winds and
clear skies, should see ideal radiational cooling conditions and
lower temperatures across most of the region compared to what we
will see tonight. 

13

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

A 1031mb surface high will prevail across the four state area on 
Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb into the 
mid to upper 50s. Light winds will become southerly overnight as 
surface high shifts east. A quick warmup is expected with overnight 
lows on Wednesday morning forecast to remain above freezing from the 
mid 30s across Arkansas and Louisiana and the lower 40s across East 
Texas. 

Low-level moisture will increase ahead of a developing storm 
system across the southern Rockies. While GFS is much wetter than 
ECMWF the WPC event total for QPF through day 5 is from a half inch 
to inch and half for our four state area which is great news in 
light high water issues in progress. We will keep the mention for 
isolated thunder Wednesday night into Thursday with a sharp trough 
in the upper-level pattern. The main moisture axis works to our East 
by Thursday afternoon. However, much like this last storm, this is a 
large deep low and clouds and light showery coverage will continue 
until the low and it's wrap around moisture all move across the MS 
river around early on Friday morning. An enhanced pressure gradient 
behind departing low will allow for strong north winds across the 
region on Friday keeping highs in the low to mid 50s. More sun and 
lighter winds will make for a nice weekend. Overnight lows in the 
upper 30s to lower 40s can be expected and a high around 60 next 
Sunday. 

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  31  51  29  58 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  30  50  25  56 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  24  51  24  57 /   0   0   0   0 
TXK  27  50  27  56 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  26  49  24  55 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  30  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0 
GGG  29  52  30  59 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  33  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15