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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-11-20 11:32 UTC
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555 FXUS64 KOUN 201132 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 532 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018 .AVIATION... VFR will apply through the forecast period. Skies will remain clear. Expect mainly southeast to south winds by this afternoon, with speeds around 5 to 10 kt. Some slighlty stronger gusts will be possible at WWR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/ DISCUSSION... A surface high situated over eastern KS will continue to slide southward today. Temps will remain below average under this feature. Low level flow will become more southerly by tomorrow as a shortwave trough moves over central and north TX. Moisture advertised with this wave is low so and lift associated with it should remain south of the Red River now. Therefore, will keep a dry forecast for Wed now with only an increase in mid to high cloud cover. Thanksgiving Day will be near average under a mid to upper ridge axis. South winds will increase a tad to around 15 mph during the afternoon. The next chance of precipitation arrives Fri with a fairly progressive upper trough. The highest chances will be along and east of I-35, where moisture will reside long enough. Otherwise, a dryslot will likely "shut down" precip very quickly during black Friday. The most significant feature this forecast period is still a deep trough expected to impact the plains late in the weekend. The GFS and ECMWF have swapped solutions, with the GFS now much further south with its placement. This solution is an outlier and ensemble member suggest the same. Therefore, have only included some brief snowfall for extreme northwestern OK Sunday. It is now very likely, however, that breezy NW winds will accompany the associated surface low and cold front throughout the day. Any displacement to the south with the aforementioned feature will surely result in more precipitation than currently expected, including snow, blowing snow, and perhaps blizzard conditions. This will be watched very closely over the next several days. Overall, it appears below average temps can be expected through early next week with a longwave trough engulfing the central and eastern CONUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 53 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 54 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 33 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 32 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 35 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/03/03