National Weather Service Raw Text Product

074 
FXUS64 KFWD 200527 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1127 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.AVIATION...
No aviation weather concerns across North and Central Texas
through Tuesday night with only few to scattered high clouds and a
north to northeast wind at speeds less than 10 knots.  

79

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tonight/

Skies will continue to clear this afternoon from north to south 
as a deep layer of dry air continues to plunge southward. With the
dry air, clear skies and light winds...optimal radiational 
cooling is anticipated. Have nudged temperatures a few degrees 
below MOS values, especially across some of the sheltered and low-
lying areas. Most areas should see overnight lows fall into the 
30s with parts of the Big Country and across the sheltered/low-
lying areas falling below 32 degrees. The dry air aloft, coupled 
with some breeziness at 925mb (wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots) 
should for the most part mitigate a widespread fog threat. The 
exception to this may be across some of these sheltered spots 
where very shallow fog may develop.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tuesday through Early Next Week/

North and Central Texas will begin the period situated between a 
large scale upper trough to the east and a shortwave trough 
(embedded in the southern stream flow) to over Baja California. 
The resulting upper level flow will produce shortwave ridging and
subsidence overhead. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will 
be centered just north of the Red River on Tuesday. So after a 
chilly start, plentiful sun will allow temperatures to climb into 
the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Light north winds and
weak cold air advection south of the surface high should keep 
temperatures from climbing any higher than that.

Winds will veer to the east late Tuesday night and then to the 
southeast Wednesday morning as the surface ridge shifts east
of the area. Mid and high clouds will increase during the day
Wednesday as the shortwave approaches from the west. Scattered
showers should develop just west and south of the area by midday
Wednesday where moisture and lift will be on the increase in 
advance of the approaching shortwave, and these showers should 
begin to affect the area by Wednesday afternoon. The lack of 
significant moisture return will keep precipitation totals on the 
light side, and confined to areas mainly along and south of I-20 
(where the higher POPs will be). The activity will move quickly 
east of the region Wednesday night as the shortwave heads for the
Central Gulf Coast. The exiting disturbance will leave North and 
Central Texas with dry weather and seasonable temperatures (lows 
around 40 and highs around 60) for Thanksgiving Day. 

Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave will be traveling east across the
Great Basin Thanksgiving afternoon and evening. The subsequent 
strengthening of a lee-Rockies surface trough will enhance the 
pressure gradient across the Plains, leading to increasing 
southerly low level flow across the forecast area Thursday night. 
The latest progs continue to dig and strengthen the shortwave over
the Southern Plains late Thursday night and Friday morning, 
generating strong forcing for ascent over the area on Friday. 
Despite the system's intensity, moisture return will likely be too
limited and brief for convective development across much of the 
area, and at this time it looks like this will be mainly an East 
Texas through the Mississippi Valley convective event. However, 
there should be a window of opportunity Friday late morning and 
afternoon for shower and thunderstorm development east of 
Interstate 35 before activity accelerates off to the east. 

It is still a bit to early to get an accurate assessment on the 
severe threat due to model discrepancies regarding timing and
strength. Even if the ECMWF (which remains the most aggressive 
with overall intensity) verifies, the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms would likely still remain just east of the area 
where convective parameters will be more favorable. For now we
will keep the chance POPs for areas generally along and east of
the I-35 corridor with the probability of strong to severe storms
being far too low to mention.

Saturday is shaping up to be a nice one as subsidence behind the 
shortwave creates warm and dry weather, with highs in the upper 
60s and lower 70s. This will be short-lived, however, as the next 
upper trough swings across the Plains Saturday night and a strong
cold front pushes through the area. The latest timing for this 
front is looking like Saturday night or Sunday, with only low-end 
POPs expected due to the lack of moisture. A return to seasonably 
cool weather can be expected early next week behind the front.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  58  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Waco                34  61  37  58  41 /   0   0   0  30  10 
Paris               37  56  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              32  57  35  57  39 /   0   0   0   5   5 
McKinney            33  57  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Dallas              39  59  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Terrell             38  58  36  58  39 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Corsicana           39  60  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  20  10 
Temple              36  61  37  58  42 /   0   0   0  30  20 
Mineral Wells       32  58  34  58  38 /   0   0   0  20   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25