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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-11-19 17:01 UTC
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937 FXUS64 KOUN 191701 AAA AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 1101 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018 .UPDATE... Overall going forecast looks good. Front has moved across NW OK and will continue to move across the fa this afternoon/evening causing winds to shift to the N/NW. Otherwise, sunny and warmer than yesterday with highs in the 50s this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ AVIATION... VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will slowly become northwesterly today, with speeds around 10 to 15 kt. Skies will generally remain clear. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ DISCUSSION... Stratus continues to shift eastward early this morning and temperatures have already fallen into the low 20s across northwestern OK as a result. Expect a frosty sunrise for most locations. Skies will remain clear throughout the day but afternoon highs will still remain a few degrees below average, with weak CAA accompanying a subtle reinforcing cold airmass. Another chilly morning is expected Tue under the corresponding surface high, especially across northeastern OK. Below average afternoon max temps are again expected Tue under the surface high slowly shifting eastward. A warmup will begin Wed as southerly low level flow returns ahead of a mid level shortwave trough moving under the ridge over the Rockies. In addition, this feature still appears it may produce a few showers across the southwestern zones but certainly do not expect much QPf with very limited moisture present. Even warmer conditions will follow through late in the week with a lee low expected Fri ahead of a deeper shortwave trough moving into the Southern Plains. Precipitation chances with this feature appear a bit more likely along and east of I-35 after sunrise Friday but should quickly shift south during the day as the trough axis does the same. The most significant feature for this forecast will occur during the extended periods, as a deep Pacific trough digs southeastward over the central Rockies Sat. The GFS, and most other solutions including ensembles, are fairly progressive with the trough. However, the ECMWF paints a different picture this weekend, which deepens the trough and closes a low somewhere over CO late Sat night. This outlying solution could result in blizzard conditions over portions of KS, and perhaps as far south as northwestern OK. Decided to go somewhere between, which is very similar to what the Canadian suggests. This would limit any significant impacts across our area. The ECMWF solution, obviously, cannot be totally ruled out so future consistency and consensus will be watched closely over the next several days. Regardless, near the end of the forecast period it appears a cold trend is on the way based on synoptic pattern agreement of a deep longwave trough developing over at least the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions also appear more likely than not sometime late this weekend into early next week with this feature. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 53 29 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 55 28 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 52 27 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 52 23 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 51 35 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 25