National Weather Service Raw Text Product

059 
FXUS64 KBRO 131745 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1145 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Morning update is for canceling wind advisory, 
diminishing the chance for rain and updating marine forecast. 
Current wind observations and forecast. Closed low over NE Texas 
to slowly track east with the trough axis to move along the coast 
this evening. Not until then will the mid-level cloud deck clear 
the coast. Farther west where 500mb trough axis is moving through 
skies are gradually clearing and sun break through. Pressure 
gradient is slackening and 925-850mb winds are lowering with 
surface winds also on the diminishing trend. No expecting 
sustained winds above 30 mph nor anticipated frequent gusts above 
40 mph so will cancel the wind advisory ahead of schedule. Freeze 
warning remains in effect and will likely add Cameron county to 
the mix especially with highs today remaining in the 40s with 
clearing skies soon sunset allowing for rapid steady cooling 
overnight. Temperatures already forecast to reach near 30 degree 
in Harlingen so 32 degrees in other portions of the county are not
out of the question. No change to the wind chill advisory for the
entire CWA except immediate coast line. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...High overcast VFR conditions to prevail today clearing
this evening. Strong northwest winds also to remain elevated with
gusts around 30 knots for the afternoon hours. Winds diminish this
evening as surface high pressure builds over the region. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

&&

.MARINE...Pressure gradient slowly weakening as surface high pressure
builds south. Winds to remain elevated today but gusts over the 
Laguna Madre should remain below gale levels while occasional 
gusts over the Gulf waters continue through at least mid 
afternoon. Small Craft advisories are likely for all coastal 
waters for this evening and into the overnight hours. Further 
improving conditions expected Wednesday as high pressure builds 
towards the coast. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Light rain and drizzle may continue on and off this
morning across all three valley airports. MVFR to VFR conditions 
this morning eventually give way to VFR conditions from west to 
east this afternoon and evening. Strong northerly winds this
morning and afternoon begin to diminish by this evening. Clear
skies are expected tonight. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Strong northerly winds 
continue this morning into this afternoon before conditions begin 
to slowly improve from west to east. Western extent of Wind 
Advisory may only briefly reach criteria late this morning into 
early afternoon, while the lower Texas coast continues to 
experience gusts near 40 mph or higher. 

As the wind threat begins to diminish and additional cold air 
works into the region, our attention shifts to temperatures and 
the winter weather hazards. Have upgraded the Freeze Watch to a 
Freeze Warning with growing confidence in most locations dipping 
to and below freezing overnight into Wednesday morning. Areas 
along the border in the mid and lower Rio Grande Valley may only 
flirt with 32 degrees. Have kept freeze headlines out of Cameron 
County for this package, however, northern and western portions of
the county may dip to or just below freezing at times. 

Wind chill values fall into the low and mid 20s across portions 
of the mid and lower Rio Grande Valley overnight into Wednesday 
morning. Have issued a Wind Chill Advisory for Inland Cameron, 
Inland Willacy, and Hidalgo counties late tonight into Wednesday 
morning. The advisory may need to be extended along the coast into
Inland Kenedy county and portions of the northern ranchlands. 
Exposure to these conditions, regardless of headlines, will be 
dangerous. Messaging toward looking after and protecting people, 
pets, plants, and pipes should continue. 

At this time, do not expect any of the light precipitation along 
the coast and into the mid valley to continue beyond this 
afternoon, despite numerous requests and pleading from our local 
winter weather fans. 

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday): High pressure over 
head will settle in and moderate. Models bumped up overnight low 
temps a skosh Wednesday night/Thursday morning, so no freeze watch
at the moment. Low temps will be just above freezing, though 
can't rule out isolated sub freezing marks. With relatively light 
winds, wind chill should not be near any critical values. Thursday
will be mostly sunny with high temperatures rebounding into the 
60s. The warming trend and dry weather will continue into the 
early part of the weekend...Saturday. Southeast return flow will 
bring a few showers back over the area from the south Saturday 
night, while a cold front pushes south into central Texas. Chance 
of rain will continue Sunday into Sunday night as moisture pools 
ahead of the front. Temps will continue to be cool, with 50s and 
60s Saturday and Sunday nights, with 70s on Sunday. Winds will 
back Sunday into Sunday night to northeast, but a coastal trough 
will set up on Monday, helping to keep rain over the area. Temps 
will cool a few degrees Sunday night through Tuesday, but impacts 
from the Sunday front should be modest.

MARINE:
Now through Wednesday: Gale force winds and hazardous seas
continue through this afternoon across all coastal waters and into
this evening offshore. Winds begin to diminish this evening 
through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are expected to follow 
the Gale Warning by this evening across all Gulf waters, with bay 
conditions improving late Wednesday. 

Wednesday night through Saturday night: High pressure will spread 
over the area early on, with steadily improving conditions. Moderate 
north winds and seas Wednesday night will settle down to light/low 
by Friday, becoming light/low to moderate southeast going into the 
weekend as overhead high pressure shifts east.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for 
     TXZ248>254-353.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday 
     for TXZ253>255-353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until midnight CST tonight for 
     GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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