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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV Received: 2018-10-17 03:10 UTC
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991 FXUS64 KSHV 170310 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1010 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 .UPDATE... Much of the region continues to be covered with pockets of light to moderate rain, and this trend should continue for several more hours before coverage gradually decreases closer to daybreak on Wednesday. For the remainder of tonight, did increase POPs slightly over much of north Louisiana and extreme south Arkansas where rain is better concentrated at this time. Temperatures look to be well on track so no changes have been made to overnight lows as readings should hold fairly steady overnight with just another degree or two to fall in most locations. The rest of the forecast looks on track as well. Updated text products will be issued here shortly. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 746 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ AVIATION... For the 17/00Z TAF period, IFR/MVFR cigs continue to plague all sites this evening as light to moderate rain is still ongoing. Expect these trends to continue for at least the first half of the period, as cigs may dip even lower with intermittent LIFR conditions at times. Rain should began to taper off during the day on Wednesday, but still cannot rule out some periodic rainy periods as SW flow aloft shifts more westerly. Cigs will begin to finally improve as well, likely seeing MVFR and some low VFR cigs late in the period. N/NE sfc winds will prevail with speeds from around 6-12 kts through much of the period. /19/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday Night/ Strong isentropic upglide that has provided us with widespread rain for the last 24 plus hours will gradually weaken tonight into Wednesday, as sfc CAA weakens and the upper ridge over the sern CONUS nudges further wwd. This will force the better lift back over central and N TX and greatly reduce our coverage of rain through Wednesday night. For tonight, however, periods of rain will be likely for most areas, so have continued to maintain the ongoing likely PoPs for much of the region. Rain rates should remain below what would be required for flash flooding, but cannot rule out isold instances of flooding overnight, especially of low-lying and poor drainage areas. Cloud cover will continue to keep us from much of a diurnal change in temps overnight. However, aforementioned reduced coverage of rainfall during the day Wednesday will allow temps to warm somewhat, although still nowhere near mid-October normals. /12/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Upper low near four corners region will open up and kick out across the plains, sending rainfall, which had retreated wwd into central TX, back into area. As this trough passes into Ohio Valley, upper low redevelops to the west, keeping area in sw flow aloft. Upper jet becomes split with upper high over Cascades lifting main jet nwd. Although nw flow aloft will remain north of area, the flow will send a weak reinforcing cold front into the region. Rain across most of the area on Friday will begin to push swd with the fropa. The latter portion of the wknd will be seasonally cool with clearing skies. Upper jet becomes split with upper high over Cascades lifting main jet nwd, while srn stream jet underneath new upper low sending Pacific moisture eastward to overrun shallow colder airmass still in place near the gulf coast. This Pacific moisture will gradually build nwd and will enter low pops back into the region towards end of the extended fcst period. A steep low lvl inversion remains in place helping to lock in the cooler temps, along with a stable airmass not conducive to any significant tstm development thru end of the fcst period. /07/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 49 58 54 62 / 80 30 20 10 MLU 50 60 54 65 / 70 30 10 10 DEQ 47 62 52 60 / 40 30 10 10 TXK 47 56 51 59 / 80 40 10 10 ELD 47 58 52 61 / 80 20 10 10 TYR 49 56 52 60 / 70 50 20 30 GGG 49 57 54 60 / 80 50 20 20 LFK 52 58 55 65 / 60 30 30 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 19/12/07