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991 
FXUS64 KSHV 170310
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Much of the region continues to be covered with pockets of light
to moderate rain, and this trend should continue for several more
hours before coverage gradually decreases closer to daybreak on 
Wednesday. For the remainder of tonight, did increase POPs
slightly over much of north Louisiana and extreme south Arkansas
where rain is better concentrated at this time. Temperatures look
to be well on track so no changes have been made to overnight lows
as readings should hold fairly steady overnight with just another
degree or two to fall in most locations. The rest of the forecast
looks on track as well. Updated text products will be issued here
shortly.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 746 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ 

AVIATION...

For the 17/00Z TAF period, IFR/MVFR cigs continue to plague all
sites this evening as light to moderate rain is still ongoing.
Expect these trends to continue for at least the first half of 
the period, as cigs may dip even lower with intermittent LIFR 
conditions at times. Rain should began to taper off during the 
day on Wednesday, but still cannot rule out some periodic rainy 
periods as SW flow aloft shifts more westerly. Cigs will begin to
finally improve as well, likely seeing MVFR and some low VFR cigs
late in the period. N/NE sfc winds will prevail with speeds from
around 6-12 kts through much of the period.

/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ 

SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday Night/
Strong isentropic upglide that has provided us with widespread
rain for the last 24 plus hours will gradually weaken tonight into
Wednesday, as sfc CAA weakens and the upper ridge over the sern 
CONUS nudges further wwd. This will force the better lift back
over central and N TX and greatly reduce our coverage of rain
through Wednesday night. For tonight, however, periods of rain
will be likely for most areas, so have continued to maintain the
ongoing likely PoPs for much of the region. Rain rates should
remain below what would be required for flash flooding, but cannot
rule out isold instances of flooding overnight, especially of
low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Cloud cover will continue to keep us from much of a diurnal change
in temps overnight. However, aforementioned reduced coverage of 
rainfall during the day Wednesday will allow temps to warm
somewhat, although still nowhere near mid-October normals. /12/

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Upper low near four corners region will open up and kick out 
across the plains, sending rainfall, which had retreated wwd into 
central TX, back into area. As this trough passes into Ohio 
Valley, upper low redevelops to the west, keeping area in sw flow
aloft. Upper jet becomes split with upper high over Cascades 
lifting main jet nwd. Although nw flow aloft will remain north of 
area, the flow will send a weak reinforcing cold front into the 
region. Rain across most of the area on Friday will begin to push 
swd with the fropa. The latter portion of the wknd will be 
seasonally cool with clearing skies. 

Upper jet becomes split with upper high over Cascades lifting main 
jet nwd, while srn stream jet underneath new upper low sending 
Pacific moisture eastward to overrun shallow colder airmass still in 
place near the gulf coast. This Pacific moisture will gradually 
build nwd and will enter low pops back into the region towards end 
of the extended fcst period. A steep low lvl inversion remains in 
place helping to lock in the cooler temps, along with a stable 
airmass not conducive to any significant tstm development thru 
end of the fcst period. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  58  54  62 /  80  30  20  10 
MLU  50  60  54  65 /  70  30  10  10 
DEQ  47  62  52  60 /  40  30  10  10 
TXK  47  56  51  59 /  80  40  10  10 
ELD  47  58  52  61 /  80  20  10  10 
TYR  49  56  52  60 /  70  50  20  30 
GGG  49  57  54  60 /  80  50  20  20 
LFK  52  58  55  65 /  60  30  30  30 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/12/07