National Weather Service Raw Text Product

995 
FXUS64 KHGX 170013
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
713 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

00Z AVIATION...SHRA activity has dissipated across the northern 
TAF sites, but widespread IFR ceilings are expected to continue 
with some periods of MVFR BR during the next 24 hours. Sfc winds
will continue from the north at 5-15 KTS. Main area for SHRA
continues to be across UTS and CLL. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Light rain falling across the far northern tier counties has 
finally weakened this afternoon on its northeasterly trek. 72 
hour rainfall of between 5 and 12 inches across this recently hard
hit area has created very saturated soils and pushed some points 
along the Trinity and Bedias Creek into moderate or major flood. 
The good news is that short term (through early Thursday) rainfall
on top of these basins from Brazos County over to Houston County 
will be light and intermittent. The not-so-good news is that there
is another 3 to 6 inches of rain forecast to fall across north 
central Texas through early Sunday, or where the highest weekly 
rainfall has already fallen over the Texas Hill Country
northeastward toward the DFW metroplex. This upstream rain will 
more than likely keep flooding concerns alive (especially for the 
rivers and their tributaries) well into early next week. Aside 
from the hydrology, the region's meteorological scenario is more 
tame, albeit more of the same weather we experienced today 
tomorrow with only subtle warming forecast. Overcast with periods
of either mist/fog in the morning hours and the occasional daytime
shower through Thursday. Very weak disturbances riding around 
the western periphery of upper ridging centered in the vicinity of
Florida will initiate these periods of light precipitation. The 
isentropic, overrunning situation we find ourselves in will be 
around through late week. While likely setting a few minimum high 
temperature records today, there will be subtle day-to-day warming
back into the upper 60s (north) to upper 70s (coast) by Friday 
under continued overcast and a stuck northeasterly wind. Reasoning
is that the mid level boundary up in north central Texas will not
make much more of a southern jog and 85H temperatures will be on 
the rise. Less precipitation will also aid in this gradual warming
trend back into the upper 60s to 70s trend, although still a good
5 to 15 degrees below normal in relation to lower 80 maxTs for mid
to late October.

Moisture from the remnants of tropical cyclone Tara in the east 
Pacific and whatever becomes of the Honduras-Belize mess (upper 
wave or weak spot Low?) moving up into the southern Gulf-Bay of 
Campeche will keep Coastal Bend - western Gulf POPs high through 
the weekend. We will still be within an entrenched northeasterly 
low level flow pattern and western Gulf troughiness will keep 
southwestern CWA rain chances in the modest to high (Saturday) - 
slight to low end category through early next week. Drier air 
coming in behind a Saturday cold frontal passage will partially 
clear out skies and allow many us to finally see peeks of the sun 
for the first time in about a week. Weekend conditions commence on
an overcast and potentially showery note Saturday with much 
improvement expected on Sunday with more sunshine...areawide 
temperatures all achieving the 70-plus degree realm by early 
afternoon. 31

MARINE
Moderate to strong north to northeast winds and elevated seas will
persist for the remainder of this week and into the weekend as the
pressure gradient remains tight. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories will be needed, and Coastal Flood Advisories will be 
possible later this week for occasionally elevated water levels at
high tide. Winds will become more easterly on Thu through Fri. 
Another cold front is expected to move through the area Fri night 
and Sat which will keep winds and seas elevated. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      51  59  53  65  55 /  40  30  60  50  50 
Houston (IAH)              56  65  57  70  60 /  20  30  40  40  30 
Galveston (GLS)            64  70  65  75  69 /  30  40  40  40  50 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning 
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...24