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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-10-16 23:45 UTC
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973 FXUS64 KLUB 162345 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 .AVIATION... Bands of rain showers will occasionally affect the terminals for the next 24 hours. Low VFR ceilings are expected at KCDS and KPVW, though a brief dip to MVFR is not out of the question. At KLBB, MVFR CIGS are expected to continue for next 24 hours. MVFR to IFR CIGS are possible tomorrow evening as rain showers increase in coverage. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ DISCUSSION... An upper low over Arizona continues to pump mid and upper level moisture across Texas. A series of short waves ejecting from the main low will continue to bring periods of showers to the South Plains area through at least Thursday night. One such wave is spreading light rain across roughly the eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon. This area should be out of the area by evening with the next one expected to begin bringing rain in from the south/southwest later tonight. That rain will then spread northward across all of the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday as the main upper low moves northward to Utah. Rain chances should shift to the east of the area by the end of the day Friday as the upper low moves quickly eastward across Colorado and opens up into a northern stream trough that will take it the Great Lakes. Heavy rain through this period looks unlikely at this time given extremely limited convective instability. Upper level ridging from the Pacific Northwest to Texas should see things clear out and warm up for the first part of the weekend and probably into Sunday, but as the ridge axis shifts eastward Sunday and another trough replaces it across the intermountain West there could be some showers try to move into western parts of the forecast area late that day. Despite fairly high chance PoPs by the model blend initialization, there is no consistent and clear signal for precipitation Monday and Tuesday. In fact models seem to be backing off the wetter solutions. Have backed off these higher precip chances for now, favoring slight chance mention early next week. Much will depend on how the western low evolves and ejects, something the models currently seem to be struggling with. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/28