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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2018-10-16 23:26 UTC
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694 FXUS64 KAMA 162326 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 626 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Radar indicates showers moving in from the south and will be around the AMA vicinity, but may just be virga, with limited rainfall reaching the ground due to the high surface dewpoint depressions. The same goes for DHT later in the TAF period, just have VCSH as they continue to move north, but may not reach the ground. Winds will generally be out of the north/northeast for the TAF period, and will likely be at or below 10kts. DHT is gusting in the teens at the moment, but is expected to come down here in the next hour or two. Weber && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Upper level low centered over Arizona is helping usher in moisture across the Panhandles. Mostly cloudy skies are being realized across a good portion of the coverage area. The position of the upper level low has created an area of diffluence aloft which should help lead to light rain across some areas of the Panhandles. The better dynamics are farther south and southeast of the area, and hence the higher QPF and ongoing flooding across parts of central to northern Texas. Due expect winds to remain light through the short term (7pm tomorrow). Clouds may start to break across the north, but overall should remain mostly cloudy across the local area. Light rain chances are best across central to southern parts of the Texas Panhandle where the better isentropic lift is noted. Also, with clouds and cooler airmass in place, not expecting highs to get much our of the 50s to lower 60s range today and tomorrow. Clouds should "blanket" us tonight with highs above freezing, but still on the cooler side in the upper 30s to upper 40s range. LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday Closed upper low over the Great Basin region with southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles. Shortwave energy ejecting northeastward and Gulf low level moisture on warm air advection surface flow will help to produce continued chances for showers across the forecast area Wednesday night through Friday. The closed upper low weakens into op[en wave as it tracks slowly eastward across the Rockies by the end of the week. Shortwave ridging occurs over West Texas and the Panhandles in time for the weekend allowing for drier conditions. Cold front pushes southeast across the forecast area Friday which will help scour out the low level moisture and allow for somewhat cooler conditions. Cool surface ridge will push east and south away from the Panhandles but will prevent a quick return of low level surface moisture from the Gulf late this weekend into the early part of next week. Lee surface trough develops across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico which will allow for a southerly to southwesterly surface flow. Surface pressure gradient to tighten up over the forecast area which will result in increasing surface winds and developing low level jet by late Sunday into early next week. Return Gulf surface flow should increase again by Tuesday with rain showers possible once again Tuesday and Tuesday night of next week. Another cold front expected early next week around Monday night. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 89/24/11