126 
FXUS62 KMLB 052000
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...
Lcl convergence band off the Space/Treasure Coasts has been 
surprisingly resilient, though shra activity associated with it has 
been very localized, estimated coverage AOB 10pct. Sat imagery shows 
this band extending to points about 100mi north of the Bahamas, with 
RAP40 analysis showing a few pockets of 70-75pct mean RH thru the 
H100-H70 lyr. Much drier air remains aloft, however, with regional 
dewpoint depressions arnd 15C thru the H85-H50 lyr, while mid/upr 
lvl dynamic support remains neutral. Mid lvl lapse rates are 
unimpressive with readings arnd 5.0C/KM.  

Given the long easterly fetch over the W Atlc, and that winds have 
increased a touch thru the H100-H85 lyr this aftn, cannot completely 
rule out coastal shras overnight. Winds weaken substantially abv 
H85, however, so do not expect any of these to make it past the 
coastal counties. Overall coverage will be low (AOB 20pct), but it 
should be noted that the moisture band is aligned parallel to the 
mean H100-H70 flow, allowing the shras to take on a training effect. 
This will enhance the potential for a repeat of this morning's very 
heavy rain totals in south Brevard County. 

Continued onshore flow will keep min temps 5-10F abv avg, L70s 
interior and M70s along the coast.   

Sat-Mon...(modified prev disc)
A strong deep layer ridge will remain anchored over the Mid Atlc/New 
England region into early next week. This will maintain the 
persistent deep easterly flow pattern with shallow low level 
moisture gradually increasing Sun night into Monday. Strong mid lvl 
ridging to our N-NE will keep persistent synoptic scale subsidence 
overhead. Boundary layer winds averaging 15-20KT will moderate temps 
and diurnal instability while limiting convergence along a diffuse 
ECSB. Given these modifying influences, TS chances will remain nil 
this weekend, and minimal (slight chance) Monday, even as rain 
chances increase into the 30-40 percent range for Sunday-Monday.

Monday night looks to be the transition period toward higher rain 
chances as a plume of higher moisture begins to advect into ECFL in 
tandem with a tropical disturbance lifting up the west coast of the 
Carib and thru the Yucatan Channel. Max temps will range from the 
U80s near the coast to around 90F inland. Mins in the L70s inland, 
and M70s along the coast with a few sheltered inland spots perhaps 
dropping just below 70F Sunday/Monday mornings.

Tue-Fri...(prev disc) 
Specific details of any tropical development off to out west remain 
rather murky, given the varying OP-model solutions and their lack of 
strong consensus/continuity. However, the general trend will be for 
whatever does or doesn't develop over the GOMEX to turn slowly 
northward around the western flank of the ridge to our north, which 
should be weakening to some extent during the latter half of the 
week. This is turn would cause veering of the low to mid level wind 
flow, and continued advection of deep tropical moisture NW-north 
across the peninsula, thereby further increasing rain chances into 
the numerous/likely category for most, if not all, of the work week. 
The chance for TS will also increase given a more southerly wind 
flow, although clouds/higher precip coverage will keep this no 
higher than scattered. Maxes will be in the U80s, with few inland 
spots touching 90F. Mins in the L-M70s inland, M-U70s along the 
coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR through Sat. Isolated SHRA may affect coastal terminals 
tonight/early Sat with brief MVFR CIGs/VSBYs then transition to the 
interior terminals in the afternoon but coverage looks too low for 
any TEMPO groups or even VC term for now. 

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...High pressure over the Deep South will maintain a light 
to gentle easterly breeze acrs the local Atlc, while long pd swells 
generated by distant Tropical Storm Leslie continue to enhance local 
wave heights. Combined seas 4-5FT over the shelf waters...up to 6FT 
in the Gulf Stream...dominant pds around 12sec. These swells will 
generate hazardous conditions at the inlets, especially during the 
outgoing tide.

Sat-Mon...Slowly deteriorating conditions into early next week. 
Easterly breeze will persist, though gradually strengthening as a 
tropical disturbance lifts out of the wrn Carib and through the 
Yucatan Channel, while the aforementioned high pressure ridge drifts 
up the eastern seaboard and is reinforced by a secondary ridge 
transiting the U.S./Canada border. As the disturbance and the ridge 
begin to interact, the lcl pressure gradient will tighten, allowing 
winds to strengthen to a gentle to moderate breeze on Sun, then 
moderate to fresh on Mon. Long period swells gradually diminishing, 
only to be replaced by increasing shorter pd wind waves...4-6FT 
areawide thru late Sun aftn, building up to 7FT in the Gulf Stream 
on Mon.  

Tue-Wed...Poor boating conds thru midweek as winds gradually shift 
to the SE...gentle to moderate breeze nearshore and moderate to 
fresh offshore. Seas building to 5-6FT nearshore and 6-7FT offshore 
by daybreak Tue. Given that Tropical Storm Leslie will be east of 
50W by this time and too far for any sig swell energy to impact the 
east FL Coast, fcst will favor the less aggressive WNAWAVE wave 
model guidance over the NWPS, which continues to exhibit a high bias 
offshore. The Fcst will be subject to change, however, as the 5-day 
NHC fcst has placed a 70pct probability that the Carib disturbance 
will become an organized system.   

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  87  73  87 /  10  20  20  40 
MCO  71  90  72  89 /  10  20  10  40 
MLB  77  88  75  88 /  20  20  20  40 
VRB  77  88  73  88 /  20  20  20  30 
LEE  72  90  71  90 /   0  20  10  30 
SFB  71  89  71  88 /  10  20  10  40 
ORL  73  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  30 
FPR  76  88  73  87 /  20  20  20  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Forecast...Bragaw 
Aviation...Kelly
Marine.....Bragaw