National Weather Service Raw Text Product

831 
FXUS64 KOUN 240827
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog and drizzle will be seen through the early morning
hours. A few light showers cannot be ruled out across central and
southwest Oklahoma, along with western north Texas, but pops will
be confined to southeast portions of the state for now. Clouds are
expected to erode similar to yesterday, from west to east, with
lingering clouds still possible east of I-35 late in the day.
Increase lower level south/southwest flow ahead of Tuesday's
front should keep chances for repeat fog and drizzle tonight and
early Tuesday on the low side.

GFS and ECM have trended toward the slightly faster WRF model in 
regards to frontal timing Tuesday, although the WRF continues to 
be stronger with post frontal cold air advection. This will likely
result in non-diurnal temperatures traces across northern and 
western Oklahoma, if not more of the forecast area. Ahead of the 
front, veered flow will allow temperatures to rise well into the 
80s, if not a few 90s across western north Texas and far southwest
Oklahoma. Models are also stronger with post-frontal mid-level
trough Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will result in a 
continuation and even increase in pops across the southern half 
of Oklahoma into northern Texas. Precipitable water values progd 
to be between 1.25 and 1.5, which are still above climo averages,
which is near 1 inch. While no excessively high rain totals are 
expected with this next round, we could see some areas of 1 to 1.5
inch totals, with the greatest chance for these higher amounts 
across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, closer to 
region of more persistent/strong lift late Tuesday night through 
midday Wednesday. Enough rain may occur over central and southeast
Oklahoma that will aggravate lowland flooding. Along with the 
scattered to numerous showers and embedded non-severe storms, 
Wednesday is expected to quite cool, with most temperatures 
remaining in the lower and middle 60s. Once mid-level trough axis 
passes region, slow clearing and light winds expected on Thursday 
with temperatures still below average. 

Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity expected Friday into 
the weekend, although we will have to watch potential for frontal 
intrusion into at least northern Oklahoma Friday night and 
Saturday. Models want to keep the front just north of Oklahoma as 
upper forcing passes north of the region, but given quality of 
airmass introduced to northern and central plains, would not be 
too surprised if front surges farther south Friday night than 
currently progd. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  86  59 /  10  10  10  50 
Hobart OK         82  62  87  58 /   0  10  10  60 
Wichita Falls TX  81  64  89  62 /  10  10  10  40 
Gage OK           85  61  75  53 /   0  10  20  30 
Ponca City OK     83  65  85  55 /   0  10  20  50 
Durant OK         79  67  87  64 /  20  10  10  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/11