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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-09-24 04:53 UTC
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924 FXUS64 KFWD 240453 AAC AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFs/ LIFR and IFR cigs, generally between 400-800 feet, are expected to continue through mid morning Monday. Ceilings will improve through the late morning hours and VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites by the late afternoon hours. Drizzle and mist will continue through the night, too, resulting in reduced visibilities at times. The winds will gradually shift from the north to the west and then south through the period, but speeds will remain below 10 kts. Overnight Monday night, fog may develop under light winds, clear skies, and wet soils, but confidence is not high enough to include in the extended portion of DFW after 06Z at this time. A few models are also indicating a few showers are possible in the region Monday night but coverage at this time is expected to be too low for a VCSH mention. JLDunn && .UPDATE... /Issued 940 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/ Another cloudy, damp, cool night is expected across North and Central Texas. The weak surface low is currently located somewhere in the vicinity of Limestone and Freestone counties. The remnants of this system are expected to slowly lift north- northeast tonight and may generate a few areas of light rain overnight. However, the ongoing fog and drizzle will be the main weather highlight. Visibilities may be reduced to less than a mile in a few isolated areas, but most locations should remain above 2 miles. Temperatures will not change much, remaining in the 60s and lower 70s. JLDunn && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/ /Rest of Today and Tonight/ With nothing upstream to help scour out our low-level moisture, we'll remain socked in with low clouds and drizzle the rest of the afternoon and overnight. With deep saturation up above 800 mb continuing tonight, waves of modest isentropic upglide between 300-305 K will end up squeezing moisture out in the form of expanding areas of drizzle. Some of this drizzle could be prolonged and heavy enough to result in measurable precipitation, so we'll also carry some 20-30% PoPs to account for this overnight. Localized visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will also be possible tonight. Temperatures won't move much with generally less than a 6 degree diurnal range expected between today's highs and the overnight lows. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/ /Monday through Next Weekend/ An upper trough will move east out of the Rockies on Monday and deepen across the central part of the CONUS during the first half of the work week. The surface low and stationary front just to our southeast will become diffuse as return flow develops ahead of the trough and ahead of its attendant cold front. This will put an end to our overrunning pattern during the day Monday, causing the drizzle to finally abate late Monday morning and Monday afternoon. There will likely be breaks in the clouds during the Monday afternoon hours, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Clearing skies, light return flow and saturated soils means that shallow fog formation will be possible Monday night, and this afternoon's forecast package includes patchy fog for the Monday night/Tuesday morning time frame. Two main shortwaves will round the base of the upper trough this week, the first of which will drop southeast across the Central CONUS on Tuesday. This disturbance will force a cold front southward through the Southern Pains Tuesday night. The front will reach the Red River late Tuesday night before pushing south across North and Central Texas during the day Wednesday. Large scale ascent will be lacking as the shortwave races quickly off to the east, but the presence of the larger scale trough and convergence along the front will generate scattered showers and a few storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but the lack of shear and only modest instability should keep a lid on the severe threat. Widespread heavy rain is also not expected, but a brief downpour will easily create minor flooding due to the saturated conditions from recent heavy rains. Wednesday high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below Tuesday's readings on the north side of the boundary. The front will stall over southeast Texas late Wednesday as the second shortwave drops southeast from New Mexico into West Texas. Weak isentropic lift will result in additional showers and a few elevated thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Neither heavy rain nor severe weather is expected with the elevated precipitation, and rain chances will end from northwest to southeast Thursday night as the disturbance races towards the Southeast U.S. The Plains trough will accelerate eastward across the East Coast and into the North Atlantic Friday, almost immediately being replaced by a mid/upper ridge. The ridge axis will stretch from East Texas to Florida, placing North and Central Texas on its western periphery. The resulting deep southerly flow will usher in Gulf moisture and bring chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms to the area next weekend. The ridge is currently progged to shift west towards the Southwest States shortly thereafter, placing the region beneath a northwest flow regime and possibly setting the stage for another cold front just beyond the extended forecast range. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 81 70 89 70 / 20 20 5 5 20 Waco 68 84 69 91 70 / 10 20 5 5 10 Paris 66 82 69 87 69 / 20 20 10 10 30 Denton 66 80 68 88 67 / 20 20 5 5 30 McKinney 66 81 69 89 68 / 20 20 5 5 20 Dallas 69 82 71 90 71 / 20 20 5 5 20 Terrell 71 82 70 89 69 / 20 20 5 10 10 Corsicana 70 84 70 90 70 / 20 20 5 10 10 Temple 67 84 68 90 70 / 10 20 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 65 82 66 90 66 / 10 10 5 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 82/08