National Weather Service Raw Text Product

123 
FXUS64 KCRP 210828
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
328 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SHORT TERM (Friday through Saturday)...

Have continued a trend of lowering Friday PoPs just a bit in the 
forecast. Main moisture axis looks to remain north of the area 
with some drier air working into the coastal bend. Will maintain 
chance pops north with slight chance south. Could certainly see 
isolated activity similar to the last couple of days, but the best
chance will be north, closest to upper level shortwave that will 
traverse the state today.

Saturday still looks like a rather wet day with a number of 
elements coming together...a cold front will push into central 
Texas, upper levels energy will continue to round trough and an 
increase in moisture is expected. Have only tweaked PoPs for 
Saturday slightly, still looking for high end chance to likely 
PoPs area wide. PWAT looks to be between 2 and 2.5 inches Saturday
which could produce moderate downpours, but not looking for a 
repeat of last weekend where moisture was much higher and upper 
level support stronger. 

Temperatures today likely to return to the lower 90s for much of
the area. Have upper 80s northeast where the best chance for
afternoon convection will be. With higher moisture on Saturday,
have temperatures a few degrees cooler area wide. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

Looks like the best time for rain will be Saturday night with the 
boundary seeping down and moisture in place. Could have some locally 
heavy rainfall at times. Depending on how far south the boundary 
seeps will depend on where rainfall will occur on Sunday, and for 
now the closer to the coast you are the better the chances are for 
rainfall. Still, am not going to go more than 50 POPs on Sunday as 
the ECMWF (which tends to be the wetter model) is putting most of 
the better rain chances more east of the area and is relatively dry 
farther west. Rainfall chances taper off a bit on Monday and Tuesday 
as a weak ridge builds in behind the trough. Still sufficient 
moisture for a mention of showers/storms however although many 
areas will stay rain-free. 

After Tuesday, forecast gets to be a bit more uncertain. Overall, 
will maintain a wet forecast but will not go as wet as the ECMWF is 
(high chance to likely POPs). Rationale for this is because the 
upper trough over the Central U.S. will be blocked somewhat by the 
ridge, and thus think likely POPs is not realistic. However, 
moisture is there so will continue to mention showers/storms (mainly 
diurnal) for Wednesday and Thursday but not go more than 40 POPs. 
Generally did go with the Superblend for temperatures and most other 
weather elements in the forecast for Saturday night-Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  77  88  74  85  /  20  40  60  70  50 
Victoria          88  75  87  72  86  /  40  50  70  70  50 
Laredo            94  76  90  72  86  /  20  30  50  50  20 
Alice             91  76  90  73  87  /  20  30  60  70  40 
Rockport          86  79  85  75  85  /  40  50  60  70  50 
Cotulla           92  75  87  70  86  /  40  50  60  50  20 
Kingsville        90  77  89  74  88  /  20  30  60  70  40 
Navy Corpus       87  80  85  77  85  /  20  40  60  70  50 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM