538 
FXUS62 KMHX 270515
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
115 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough will remain just offshore through tonight,
before dissipating. An offshore high and inland trough pattern 
will return through the middle of next week. A cold front will 
approach from the north Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 110 AM Mon...High pressure building offshore is providing
clear and mostly calm conditions around Eastern NC at this hour.
Temperatures have dropped into the low 70s inland, but remain 
in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Expect lows to reach to
the upper 60s inland, and the low to mid 70s along the coast.
Patchy fog is anticipated to develop inland over the next 
couple hours, and looks to be the most dense and widespread 
south of US 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sun...High pressure offshore will continue to
strengthen across the area Monday, resulting in another quiet
day across ENC. An isolated shower will be possible, but expect
the area to remain mostly dry. Low level thickness values and 
SSW flow support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Latest guidance is generally supportive of
previous forecast with building upper ridge producing hot and
humid conditions with little chance of rain through Wednesday.
Upper troughing and approaching surface front will result in
temps a few degrees cooler and a chance of scattered showers and
storms Thursday-Saturday. 

Monday night through Wednesday...Broad area of high pressure 
will strengthen over the western Atlantic and stretch westward 
to the southeast US. As winds become south/southwest, humidity 
will increase, as well as high temperatures. Highs will climb 
into the low 90s inland, and mid to upper 80s near the coast 
during this period. The increased heat and humidity will also 
produce some heat indices ranging from 98-102 during the mid to 
late afternoons. Mostly dry conditions are expected, with the 
exception of Wednesday afternoon, when some sea breeze showers 
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep a slight chance PoP 
for the area generally south of US 264. Low temps will be 
milder, ranging from the low 70s inland, to the mid to upper 70s
near the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure will retreat slightly
offshore, as a broad upper level trough pushes east across the 
northern Mid-Atlantic states. As the associated cold front 
approaches, scattered showers and storms will break out ahead 
of it, as well as along the front. 00Z GFS and ECMWF have come
into better agreement with front stalling just west and north of
area Friday-Saturday as it becomes parallel to upper flow.
Continued chance POPs most of period with higher chances inland
sections Friday and Saturday. High temps will likely be in the 
upper 80s to low 90s Thursday, and slightly cooler Friday and
Saturday. Low temps will again be mild, ranging from the low to
upper 70s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday Night/...
As of 110 AM Mon...VFR conditions are present for most at this
hour, with KOAJ reporting MVFR/IFR fog. Expect fog to slowly
become more widespread over the next few hours, and remain at
mostly MVFR levels until the couple hours before sunrise, when 
some IFR conditions (some IFR stratus development is also 
expected) are possible south of US 70, including KISO and KOAJ. 
VFR conditions will quickly return to the area later this 
morning, with mostly sunny skies and light winds expected.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... 
As of 345 AM Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through 
Wednesday with high pressure extending over the area from 
offshore. Sub-VFR with scattered showers/tstms will be possible 
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/... 
As of 945 PM Sunday...Winds continue S/SW at 5-10 knots with a
few gusts to 15 knots at times late this evening. No major
changes to the overnight forecast with S/SW winds 5-15 knots and
seas generally hovering around 2 feet. Similar winds are 
expected Monday with seas building to 2-3 feet. No major changes
made to the forecast at this update.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 345 AM 
Sunday...Return to offshore high/inland trough pattern will 
result in mainly good boating conditions through the period with
SW winds 5-15 KT and seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD