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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-08-20 11:40 UTC
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018 FXUS64 KSJT 201140 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 640 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Cold front is currently pushing south across the Big Country and will shift winds out of the north at KABI in the next hour. A few showers may impact KABI as the front moves through, but coverage of showers along the front is isolated at best. The front will continue to make its way across the area today with a wind shift at KSJT around 13Z. Short range model guidance indicates the best chances for additional storm development this afternoon and evening will occur across the southern half of the area. Confidence in coverage is low but will include VCTS at KJCT and KSOA for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the northern Big Country ahead of a southward advancing cold front. The primary hazards with these storms will be frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Convective allowing models suggest this activity will sag slowly southward into the northern and western portions of the Concho Valley through the mid morning hours. Additional isolated to scattered storm development is possible this afternoon as the front pushes through the area, with the highest PoPs confined to the southern half of the area. A few showers and storms may linger this evening and tonight along the I- 10 corridor before the front dissipates. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to closer to seasonal normals today, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Upper level center of high pressure shifts east almost directly over West Central Texas on Tuesday and remains through the rest of the week. Hot and dry conditions will prevail, with highs around the 100 degree mark in many locations. Upper high eventually shifts east into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the weekend and allow highs to come down a few degrees. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 72 96 73 / 20 5 5 5 San Angelo 96 73 98 73 / 20 5 10 5 Junction 97 73 97 73 / 30 20 10 5 Brownwood 95 72 96 72 / 20 5 10 10 Sweetwater 92 73 95 74 / 30 5 5 5 Ozona 94 71 95 72 / 30 10 10 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/99