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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2018-08-20 09:46 UTC
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013 FXUS64 KLCH 200946 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 446 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a progressive upper level low moving east cntl CONUS. A trough associated with this feature extends south over the Red River Valley, with a cluster of storms occurring over eastern AR into northern MS. Recent precip water analysis and 00Z KLCH sounding indicate above normal moisture over the region with PW near 1.9-2.0 inches. Meanwhile, sfc analysis shows low pres near KC, in association with the mid/upper system, with a frontal boundary extending southwest acrs OK into northern TX, while high pres was ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This was resulting in light south to southwest winds over the area. KLCH radar shows the typical widely sctd nocturnal showers and isolated tstms developing over coastal areas and the adjacent coastal waters. 24 && .DISCUSSION... Another day of warm and humid conditions can be expected, with sctd showers and storms again expected to develop with daytime heating. The sfc front will nudge closer to the area through tonight as the upper low progresses eastward. Convergence along the front interacting with abundant moisture in advance of the boundary will combine to keep a chc of showers and tstms through the overnight period, with the highest POPs acrs the northern zones. Northerly flow developing in the mid and upper levels in the wake of the trough should be enough to push the front south acrs the area Tuesday and over the coastal waters Tuesday night. The best chcs for showers and storms are expected along the front as it moves southward. Meanwhile, drier air spreading southward over the region behind the front will allow rain chcs to diminish from north to south. By Wednesday, the high pres ridge over the southwestern states is expected to build back to the east. The combination of ridging and a dry airmass should be sufficient to minimize rain chcs through the latter part of the week. The front is not expected to bring a significant change in temperatures, with highs climbing into the middle 90s from Wednesday through Friday. However, slightly lower dewpoints over the region will make things a little less muggy and oppressive, and daily heat index values should stay around 100 degrees or less. Overnight lows should be slightly cooler, ranging from the upper 60s acrs cntl LA to the lower/middle 70s along the I-10 corridor. The ridge aloft is expected to meander over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend, with model guidance depicting the center of the upper ridge shifting northward slightly. With east to southeast flow developing in the low levels, moisture will increase and a return to more humid conditions is expected. This will also allow for low rain chcs as more typical diurnally-driven seabreeze convection resumes. 24 && .MARINE... Light to ocnl moderate onshore flow will continue through tonight. A frontal boundary will slowly advance southward Tuesday into Wednesday before stalling over or just south of the coastal waters. The front will be accompanied by sctd showers/tstms, with offshore flow developing briefly by mid-week. The front will slowly dissipate through the end of the week, with onshore flow returning by Friday. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 74 95 69 / 30 50 20 10 LCH 91 78 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 LFT 91 77 93 74 / 40 20 40 10 BPT 91 78 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...24