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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-08-20 08:59 UTC
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179 FXUS64 KOUN 200859 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018 .DISCUSSION... Well below average temperatures expected next couple of days as drier and cooler air filters into the region behind departing cyclone. Wednesday and Thursday could stay well below average across northern Oklahoma depending on how long clouds/precip lingers with potential MCS activity. As near-zonal flow increases Tuesday, upslope flow will increase ahead of retreating warm front and will likely result in thunderstorm development to the northwest of Oklahoma. Resulting MCS is expected to track east and southeast Tuesday night and Wednesday. Location of the mentioned warm front will be modulated by intensity and location of convection, which will have a strong influence on where subsequent storm development could initiate late Wednesday into Thursday. Models fairly consistent in keeping this boundary over western into central portions of Oklahoma until Thursday, keeping greatest chances for rain across northern parts of Oklahoma. High amplitude s/wv trough progd by all models to progress eastward over the northern plains, which is expected to help warm front lift well north of Oklahoma. We will leave the forecast dry thereafter as heights build rapidly into the weekend. As far as severe weather potential for the mid-week period, it should remain on the low side, but given reasonable amounts of deep-shear across northern Oklahoma Tuesday night and again late Wednesday north of the mentioned front, at least marginal conditions appear possible. Models have come into much better agreement (GFS coming more in line with ECM) on evolution of more typical late summer subtropical ridge Friday through next weekend. This is expected to yield a warming trend and dry pattern into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 83 64 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 88 63 91 69 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 82 59 86 65 / 0 0 0 40 Ponca City OK 81 61 85 65 / 10 0 0 30 Durant OK 89 67 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 06/11