National Weather Service Raw Text Product

400 
FXUS64 KAMA 200219
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
919 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Have updated graphical forecasts, removing isolated thunderstorms
from western sections.  Little support for further development is
seen.  Have also lowered minimum temperatures a bit.  No changes 
to later periods.  Updated text products will be issued shortly.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/ 

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours as drier deep northerly and
northwest flow continues.  Thunderstorms currently over eastern 
New Mexico on a trajectory to come close to or pass southwest of 
DHT.  Surface high pressure ridge expected to continue building 
southward into forecast are tonight and Monday, with northerly 
surface winds generally around 10 kt, becoming a bit stronger 
around 15z Monday.  Occasional altocumulus layers around 6000 to 
7000 feet expected at northern terminals.  No visibility 
restrictions foreseen.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...A drier forecast period is in store through Tuesday
morning, with a low end chance of thunderstorms possible this
afternoon and evening in the far western Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Northerly flow will continue on Monday, with drier air
advecting in from the north and day time highs remaining in the
low to mid 80s. Northwesterly flow aloft, along with return
surface southerly flow, will return on Tuesday which will result
in temperatures recovering to near normal for this time of year.
In addition, thunderstorm chances will return to the northern 2/3
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as storms form across the 
Rockies and march east to southeast into the region. Hazards will
tend towards heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail as a high
CAPE/low shear environment is progged by the latest guidance. It
is interesting to note that model guidance on early Wednesday 
morning and early Thursday morning are showing high QPF areas in 
the northern Panhandles, with skew-T forecasted guidance 
supportive of high precipitable water values around an inch and a 
quarter to an inch and a half. Late afternoon and evening chances 
of thunderstorms, favoring the far northern and western 
Panhandles, will continue each night on late Thursday through late
Saturday with the usual thunderstorm hazards continuing each 
night. However, with the high pressure system forecast to reorient
towards the south to southeast of our region, high temperatures 
will increase to the 90s to near 100 regionwide through Saturday. 

Bieda

AVIATION...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs...A thunderstorm may try
to make a run at the DHT TAF site early this evening, but 
confidence is not high enough to mention it in this forecast. 
Skies are expected to remain VFR with northerly winds in the 10 to
15 knot range.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/88