National Weather Service Raw Text Product

246 
FXUS64 KHGX 192330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Mainly VFR expected this evening with any remaining convection 
dissipating. Southerly winds should continue overnight but 
dropping closer to 5 knots. There may be a mix of SCT/BKN MVFR 
ceilings for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO like the last couple of mornings. 
Think the Houston terminals stay VFR with SCT low clouds. Main 
concern tomorrow to watch will be thunderstorm development. There 
is not enough confidence yet to put a mention in the TAFS, but 
something to monitor new forecast data for in 06Z update.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 353 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms have popped up across the area
this afternoon but should dissipate shortly after sunset. A band
of light showers and a thunderstorm or two are currently pushing
through Central and North TX ahead of the approaching cold front.
These showers/storms should dissipate well before reaching our
area tonight, however some showers and thunderstorms may be
possible along and ahead of the boundary during the day tomorrow.
Short term guidance has been relatively unimpressed with
convection tomorrow for the most part, likely because we'll have 
a bit of capping to overcome first.

The front itself won't make great southward progress as the upper
level support ejects to the NE tomorrow night. However, the front 
may be able to slowly sink into the area tomorrow night into 
Tuesday, providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms before 
ultimately washing out. The last couple of GFS runs have come 
into agreement with the ECMWF solution of building the ridge back 
in after the front. As such, the forecast maintains very low PoPs
during this late-week period. The ridge begins to slide northward
a bit heading into the weekend, which could allow a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecast this
weekend.

Heat will continue to be a concern because it's August in SE
Texas. Heat index values are forecast mostly in the 102-107 degree
range for the next day or two before improving somewhat with the 
slightly drier conditions arriving with the front. A few sites 
could briefly reach 108 during the afternoon tomorrow or Tuesday 
along the sea breeze, but the breezy conditions in the wake of the
sea breeze will help offset this. 11



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  79  97  77  98  74 /  10  30  30  20  10 
Houston (IAH)          79  95  78  96  76 /  10  20  20  30  10 
Galveston (GLS)        83  93  82  93  81 /  20  10  10  30  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for 
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston 
     Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck