573 
FXUS62 KMHX 152014
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
414 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore 
through the weekend with a weak trough over the central part of
the state. A cold front will approach from the north early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...Isolated shower/tstm activity along sea
breeze will continue to gradually spread inland next few hours
and be mainly along and west of Hwy 17 during early evening
hours. Left in slight chance POPs along south coast late tonight
as several models still indicating some potential for activity
off the water. Persistence for min temps with near 70 inland to
74-77 coast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...Generally a persistence forecast with
little change in surface pattern and heights building slightly
aloft. However, forecast soundings do indicate PW values
increasing back to near 2 inches by mid afternoon which will be
more supportive of isolated convective development, and will
carry 20% POPs all zones in afternoon. Highs in lower 90s inland
to 86-90 coast. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...Looking at a more typical summer 
pattern into the weekend with Atlantic high pressure ridging 
into the area while a lee trough persists across central NC. 
Resulting S-SW flow will result in normal temperatures and a 
mainly diurnally driven convective regime across Eastern NC 
through the Sat though the models are still indicating drier 
conditions Thu with much better chances for precipitation 
returning Fri into early next week. 

Thursday...Limited convective activity is expected again 
Thursday as shortwave ridging aloft produces subsidence. There
is enough moisture and instability though to support isolated 
sea breeze convection in the afternoon and will continue with 
slight chance PoPs. Highs inland will be in the lower 90s with 
upper 80s coast. 

Friday through Tuesday...Shower and thunderstorm chances 
increase to or above climatological norms for the latter half 
of the week into early next week as the upper ridge pushes east 
and is replaced by a mean mid level trough resulting in more 
favorable support for precipitation through the period, 
especially as a front tries to move into the area over the 
weekend into early next week. Temps expected to be near normal 
with highs inland around 90 Fri and Sat, then cooling slightly 
to the mid to upper 80s Sunday through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/... 
As of 141 PM Wed...Little change to the previous forecast. 
Predominantly VFR throughout the period. A few widely scattered 
showers are trying to develop along the sea breeze this 
afternoon and may affect OAJ and EWN. An isolated thunderstorm 
or two is possible. Clearing skies tonight with light SW winds, 
so some patchy BR may develop once again by early morning.

Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected 
outside isolated showers and storms Thu. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage to scattered 
Fri and scattered to numerous Sat and Sunday with brief periods 
of sub VFR conditions possible. Cannot rule out patchy late 
night/early morning fog each day producing a brief period of 
reduced visibilities and possibly ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 410 PM Wednesday...Cyclical SW wind pattern will continue
with speeds around 15 KT tonight diminishing to near 10 KT Thu
morning, increasing to around 15 KT again Thu afternoon. 

Seas remaining 2-4 ft. 

Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... 
As of 315 AM Wednesday...Little change to the surface pattern of
a trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore into
early next week producing S-SW flow 10-20 kt through the 
period. Could see conditions approaching Advisory levels over 
the southern and central waters Fri night into Sat night as S-SW
flow increases to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas of 2 to 4 ft 
Thu and Fri will build to at least 3 to 5 ft Fri night through 
Sat night with the Wave Watch wave model indicating 6 ft seas 
possible over the outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL/MS
MARINE...JME/JBM